Is Modesto becoming more violent? Here’s what the 2022 homicide numbers show
When a homicide occurs in or around Modesto, a common refrain is that the city has become increasingly dangerous.
People blame politicians and public policy or transplants from the Bay Area and other large cities. Some lament that Modesto “never used to be like this,” while others who’ve moved away chime in to say what a great decision they made.
Like many cities, Modesto does have a crime problem, and no amount of violence in our community is acceptable. But the idea that Modesto has recently become more violent is false, according to data collected by The Bee.
In fact, the number of homicides in Modesto and across Stanislaus County in 2022 was the lowest it’s been in well over a decade.
There were 10 homicides in Modesto last year. The last time the number was lower than that was in 2007 when there were eight, according to Modesto Police Chief Brandon Gillespie. In the previous 10 years, the number ranged from 12 in 2021 and 2014 to 28 in 2015.
Countywide, there were 30 homicides, the lowest at least since 2009 (the oldest data available) and 23.6% lower than the average annual homicide number of 39.3 over the preceding 10 years, according to data collected by The Bee. Apart from the 10 homicides in Modesto, there were five in Turlock, one in Riverbank and one in Waterford. The rest were in unincorporated areas of the county, including pockets in and around Modesto and Ceres.
The pandemic and violent crime
Homicides increased statewide and nationwide since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
There was a 30% increase in the homicide rate nationally from 2019 to 2020, and provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest the rate continued to increase in 2021, according to the Pew Research Center.
In California, there was a 41.2% increase in homicides in 2021 compared to prepandemic numbers, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. The increase started in 2020, when California ranked 16th in the nation for violent crime and the San Joaquin Valley had the highest rate of violence in the state — 640 violent incidents per resident, compared to the nationwide rate of 387 incidents per 100,000 residents, according to the institute.
Consistent with national and state numbers, Modesto and Stanislaus County did see an increase in homicides in 2020 compared to 2019, but it wasn’t historically significant. The 2020 totals were less than 1% higher than the 10-year average at that point for both the county and city.
And overall violent crime in Modesto — factoring in homicides, aggravated assault, robbery and sexual assault — was higher in 2019 than each year since, according to data from Modesto police.
Police Capt. Robert Reyna credits proactive units like the Street Gangs Unit and the Crime Reduction Team; skilled detectives and officers who closed all but one of the homicide cases last year; and education and outreach efforts for the decline in homicides and violent crime over the past few years.
Gang violence in previous years has been a driving force in the homicide rate, but there were no gang-related homicides in 2022. Reyna said the Street Gang Unit proactively broke its previous record of guns seized: more than 200. The majority of homicides each year — nearly 80% in 2022 — are committed with guns.
The unit, as well as other proactive units, work with crime analysts to direct resources to areas where crime is likely to occur. It also acts on tips from the community about criminal activity, Reyna said.
Modesto police also have been working for several years to reduce domestic violence after seeing an increase in homicides resulting from it. Detectives from the Special Victim Unit have been speaking at local high schools to educate students about healthy relationships and what red flags to watch for.
Modesto had one domestic violence homicide in 2022 when a man traveled here from San Jose to kill the mother of one of his children. The suspect later was fatally shot by San Jose police following a seven-hour standoff.
There were more domestic violence homicides in other parts of the county, though.
While they never dated, a man who had a romantic interest in a friend and was accused of stalking her allegedly killed her after she reported him to police and obtained an emergency protective order. Also in Turlock, a man was charged with the beating death of his 2-month-old daughter. And a man in unincorporated Modesto allegedly killed his mother and tried to kill his brother before killing himself following a family argument.
The latter is one of four murder-suicides in Stanislaus County in 2022, an unusually high number for one year. The others involved a man who killed the maternal grandmother of his child; a man who killed his ex-girlfriend’s adult son; and a man who killed his neighbor because of an argument over a car. All four suspects shot themselves afterward.
Arguments that escalate
Officials said many of the homicides were the result of arguments that escalated into physical violence.
In August, a Modesto man allegedly stabbed his roommate to death during a fight about getting a ride somewhere.
In October, a man allegedly beat a 71-year-old man to death with a baseball bat because of previous disputes they had when they were neighbors at a south Modesto trailer park. The victim didn’t live at the trailer park anymore and was visiting there when the unprovoked attack occurred, according to Stanislaus County sheriff’s Sgt. Erich Layton.
An argument between two men about a woman started in the bar of the Riverbank Applebee’s and ended with 40-year-old Salvador Ramos shot to death in the parking lot on May 27. Layton said Ramos was dating an employee at the restaurant and the suspect, Jonathan Alexander Ray, was a regular customer who was “infatuated” with the employee.
Erin Michael Anderson and Keith Alexander Forrest, co-workers at a trucking company, argued for over an hour about the way Forrest had parked at a gas station. The argument allegedly escalated to pushing, punching and Forrest ultimately stabbing Anderson.
Despite Forrest’s claim that he acted in self defense, he has been charged with murder.
But two other homicides last year were classified as self-defense.
A Patterson man fatally shot a heavily intoxicated man who tried to force entry into his home Sept. 25.
And while the first homicide of 2022, on New Year’s Day in Salida, was the result of an illegal gun sale, the shooter, a 17-year-old boy, was determined to have acted in self-defense, according to Layton.
There also were two fatal officer-involved shootings, one of which has been determined to be justified and the other is pending a decision by the Stanislaus County District Attorney’s Office.
This story was originally published January 5, 2023 at 7:00 AM.
