Stanislaus County unemployment rises again. Economist shares what’s ahead in 2021
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Stanislaus County’s unemployment rate increased in December, marking a halt in its economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The jobless rate increased to an unadjusted 9.9%, up from a revised November rate of 8.2%, according to data from the state’s Economic Development Department. The state’s numbers also increased: California’s December unemployment clocked in at 9%, up from 8.1% in November.
Nationally, unemployment remained steady; November’s 6.7% rate continued into December, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jeff Michael, the director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said he is not surprised by the increase.
“It’s totally related to the virus, and what’s interesting is that it’s almost completely... connected to the industry shut down by and impacted by the the surge (of cases) in November and leading into December,” the economist said.
Michael said he had been anticipating the latest spike in unemployment, which he largely attributes to rising coronavirus numbers — from Thanksgiving and holiday travel, as well as the colder weather — and the impact of stricter statewide regulations. Many parts of California, including Stanislaus County, entered into regional stay-at-home orders at the beginning of December and further restricted their economies.
The impact of those shutdowns could immediately be seen, Michael said. In the leisure and hospitality industry — which includes jobs in hotels, theme parks, museums and dining — California lost 117,000 jobs during the month, with 900 of those in Stanislaus County. Still, the state made modest gains in construction jobs and professional and business services.
“A lot of other industries are continuing their incremental growth,” Michael said. “The one benefit that’s encouraging is that it is so isolated into the service sectors ... that are fueled by discretionary spending, and have a lot of close person-to-person indoor contact.”
Service sector jobs include in-person retail jobs as well as food service, which have been limited under the latest stay-at-home orders.
But Michael said these setbacks will prove temporary: once the vaccine roll-out accelerates and the federal government provides targeted assistance to those hardest-hit economic sectors, he expects the economy to steer toward recovery.
President Joe Biden has announced a $1.9 trillion proposed coronavirus relief package that would offer $1,400 stimulus checks to individuals, as well as more aid for those facing eviction and experiencing unemployment and food insecurity. Additionally, the package will provide support for small businesses and state and local governments, as well as increased funding for vaccinations and testing.
In advocating for the aid package Friday, Biden cautioned that “well over 600,000” people could die of the pandemic in the U.S. The current national death toll is 410,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
”We’re in a national emergency,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “We need to act like we’re in a national emergency.”
Michael said Biden’s plan will be crucial for economic recovery.
He highlighted the additional resources and a flurry of executive orders, to speed up and facilitate vaccine distribution and expanded testing support, as well as resources to help schools re-open.
“All those elements are very timely, have not been addressed adequately in the previous packages,” he said. “Some of the extended unemployment benefits are going to be needed. It’s going to take a while to get this under control, so those elements are are good.”
Despite the increase in unemployment numbers, Michael said he remains hopeful.
“We’re seeing negative numbers right now,” he said. “That will disappear and go the other direction as soon as we can get the virus under control.”
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published January 23, 2021 at 7:26 AM.
