How is Stanislaus County’s unemployment faring? It’s probably not what you think.
Unemployment in Stanislaus County continues to decline as the country slowly recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, setting the stage for substantial gains in the second half of 2021.
The county’s February unemployment rate came in at 9%, down from 9.4% in January, according to data released by California’s Employment Development Department. County-level data is not seasonally adjusted.
Unemployment also declined at the state level. California posted an 8.5% unemployment rate in February, down from 9% in January. Nationally, the jobless rate dropped to 6.2%, down from 6.3% the month before, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In February 2020, pre-pandemic, the county’s unemployment rate was 6.5%, compared with 4.3% statewide and 3.5% at a national level.
Jeff Michael, the director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said the city and county are back to a steady recovery after a surge in cases around the holidays and stay-at-home orders stalled job gains in the winter.
“It is indicative of renewed recovery after about three months of stagnation,” he said. “In late January, the restrictions took their first step toward easing, and so these numbers from February reflect a little bit of that optimism.”
Michael said the state’s job gains in the leisure and hospitality industries, which had been hardest-hit by the pandemic, point to increased optimism among consumers.
California gained 102,200 jobs in the sector from January to February, while Stanislaus County reported an increase of 1,000 jobs.
“Consumers are seeing an infusion of money from the stimulus bill, as well as better employment opportunities, and savings while their ability to to spend has been restricted in the pandemic,” Michael said. “I expect a real burst in spending as the year progresses, and employment will follow suit.”
Typically, Michael said, the local jobless rate is higher than the state’s, but Stanislaus County’s high percentage of essential industries – like agriculture, food processing and manufacturing – and comparatively low tourism, have helped the county maintain unemployment levels that are closer to the state average. But with recovery in 2021, that gap is set to widen again.
With the vaccine rollout ramping up across the state and country and financial support from the newest stimulus package on the way, Michael said there’s nothing standing in the way of rapid recovery in the second half of the year and more permanent gains in 2022.
“The data is a little bit better than I expected. I expected to be moving into growth mode this spring; I wasn’t sure whether we see that in February,” Michael said. “There’s certainly some positives ... but nothing really changes.”
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published March 27, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
