UPDATE: New COVID stay-at-home order looms. What will it mean for Stanislaus County?
As the San Joaquin Valley steams toward another shutdown due to the COVID-19 surge in Stanislaus County and the region, business and community members are bracing themselves for what comes next.
Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a new stay-home order that will be triggered once the region reaches 15% ICU capacity remaining in hospitals. It is expected the San Joaquin Valley, one of five designated regions in the state, will reach that grim milestone by mid-December.
Once that unwelcome mark is met, that will mean life and many businesses will return to some of the strictest restrictions seen in March during the early days of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Those new guidelines would then be in place for at least three weeks. For local businesses, that means there’s precious little time to make the most of the holiday season before having to either close temporarily, reduce capacity or stop in-person services.
But unlike the first shutdown, as the governor said in his Thursday afternoon press conference, “bars are closed, schools open.” School districts that reopened transitional-kindergarten through sixth-grade in-person learning under waivers approved by the state and Stanislaus County may continue bringing students onto campuses.
Modesto City Schools spokeswoman Krista Noonan said she believes the same is true for the small-group learning hubs that are meeting in person to help the most at-risk students who struggle with distance learning. They likely may continue “because the learning hubs are required to adhere to the small, stable cohort framework, as well as all of the health and safety protocols,” she said. District leaders will meet with county health officials Friday for more clarification and guidance on the grade 7-12 learning hubs, she said.
It’s less clear what will happen in districts that didn’t apply for TK-6 waivers but were able to return students to schools while Stanislaus County was in the red tier.
Stanislaus schools will remain open
County Superintendent of Schools Scott Kuykendall said Thursday afternoon that the county works with a group called Capitol Advisors, which recently met with some of the governor’s staff. “We were led to believe there would be no changes so far as school operations,” he said, meaning schools that opened in the red without waivers, even at the 7-12 level, could remain open. “Obviously, now, there can be no new openings of TK-6 without a waiver, and certainly no 7-12.”
According to the county Office of Education web page on public school waivers and reopening plans, five districts did not have waivers approved, and most reopened during the red-tier period. Those districts are Ceres, Denair, Hart-Ransom, Keyes and Newman-Crows Landing. Of them, only Keyes had yet to bring back students, planning to reopen Jan. 4.
For area businesses, what comes next is clearer if unwelcome. For restaurant owners like Rich Loudermilk, whose Buckhorn BBQ is open at Vintage Faire Mall in northwest Modesto, that would mean going back to takeout and delivery only, as they were in the spring when the stay-home order was first issued. Restaurants are currently operating with outside dining only, as the county remains in the purple tier.
“It’s been a devastating blow. We haven’t got any other stimulus packages since the first PPP round. I would definitely have to lay off employees if (stay-home) starts again,” he said.
He said during the first shutdown of all in-person dining in March, business went down 45%. He said currently patio dining accounts for half of their sales, so he expects another sharp decline once the stay-home locally is triggered.
But restaurants won’t be the only ones facing a tough December if the region slides back into stay-home. Small retailers and personal services from hair salons and nail salons will also see big changes.
Small-business owners in Modesto say the expected decrease to 20% percent of indoor capacity (they’re currently at 25% in the purple tier) will have an effect on their stores, as will the stay-home order as a whole. But unlike the first shutdown, malls and shopping centers will be allowed to remain open, but at the 20% capacity as well (also at 25% currently). But they also must now create special hours for those most at-risk including seniors to shop.
“This is the biggest month of the year (for retail), and I do fear that people might not survive this,” said Darlene Dover, who owns Envy Fine Clothing, which has locations in five cities including Turlock and Modesto.
Salons will close again, retail see limited capacity
She said the size of her stores means that she will be able to accommodate customers, even with the further restrictions, and that some customers are still taking advantage of her curbside pickup and local shipping options. But she already saw the effects of the pandemic restrictions on Black Friday, when Dover said her sales went down about 30% from previous years.
Still, Dover said she’s been encouraged by the community support for local and small businesses, and that people are being “more conscientious of where they’re spending.”
Paula Kiss, who owns Yesterday’s Books, a used-book store in Modesto, also said she’s noticed the local support for small businesses in the area.
Her bookstore’s capacity was small to begin with, she said, so the further reduction won’t impact it very much. But sales have been dropping, Kiss said, with Black Friday numbers only at 10% to 15% of the normal sales. The boost her business normally experiences going into December is virtually nonexistent this year.
“Having things limited and not feeling like we can run the business the way that we usually do, it makes it really hard,” Kiss said.
But it’ll be even harder for salons and barbershops, which will have to shut down entirely as a result of the new regulations. Personal services like nail salons and spas would also have to shutdown.
For Erin Bugarin, the owner of Erin Milan Salon, this will mean a loss of all her income, leaving her eight employees to rely on unemployment benefits. She started the year with a dozen employees. She said the pandemic has been “devastating” for her business, with clients scared to come in.
Bugarin invested heavily in making sure her salon is meeting safety protocols, she said — from waiver forms she sends to clients, to sanitization and temperature checks before appointments. She’s had to start charging deposits for appointments so clients won’t cancel at the last minute.
“If they say to close down for safety purposes, we should all listen,” she said, noting that not all salons in the city have been following orders over the past few months.
Enforcement in Modesto, Stanislaus focuses on education
Besides hair salons, nail studios and spas, other businesses that would need to close for three weeks during the new stay-at-home order include many that are already closed or restricted because of the county’s purple tier status. They include bars, breweries, distilleries and wineries that don’t serve food, movie theaters, museums, family entertainment centers and cardrooms
Churches and other places of worship, which are already restricted to outdoor or virtual services only in the purple tier, should not see changes to their operation.
As for enforcement, city of Modesto spokesman Thomas Reeves said it will continue to enforce business closure mandates through, first education and warnings, then fines to those that do not comply.
Stanislaus County Sheriff Jeff Dirkse said he had not yet read the new order but, “there will be no change to our operations.”
He has repeatedly said he will not arrest people for violating the public health order and will enforce through education.
“We do not have the capacity to chase gatherings or (non)-mask wearers, not to mention the constitutional questions around that,” he said.
Still, even with the new stay-at-home order, the governor said in his press conference that people are encouraged to get outside safely. That includes wearing a mask, practicing social distancing and avoiding crowded indoor settings.
Activities like going to parks and beaches, taking hikes, walking the dog and participating in other outdoor recreation are encouraged, even if the stay-at-home order goes into effect.
Bee staff reporters Deke Farrow, Kristina Karisch and Erin Tracy contributed to this story.
This story was originally published December 3, 2020 at 2:29 PM.
