Stanislaus County unemployment rate below state average. It’s unprecedented, and here’s why
Unemployment in Stanislaus County has remained stagnant in September, coming in at 10.3% for the second month in a row.
August’s adjusted county rate was also 10.3%, a drop from July’s rate of 13.5%, according to data released Friday by the state Employment Development Department. Local data is not adjusted when first released. Statewide, September unemployment is an even 11%, down from 11.4% in August.
The numbers mark the second month in a row that Stanislaus County has had a lower unemployment rate than the state. Jeff Michael, the executive director of the Center for Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said this is “unprecedented,” as the county’s numbers are normally well above the state and national level.
“I can’t recall any time before the COVID recession where Stanislaus County had lower unemployment rates than California,” he said.
Michael explained the lack of change in September’s numbers through the return of more workers to the labor force, thus evening out the effect of ongoing unemployment as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The county experienced a gain of 1,200 non-farm jobs across all industries — as well as 200 in agriculture — over the past month.
Statewide, California added 96,000 non-farm jobs, with gains in all industries except education and health services, finance, as well as mining and logging. Nationally, September unemployment declined to 7.9%, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Despite the relative gains, Michael said that the double-digit unemployment rate is “nothing to celebrate.”
In the coming months, he said, the county can expect a slower economic recovery, as the colder weather hits and flu season ramps up. Eventually, the local unemployment rate will once again surpass the state level, Michael added.
Part of the county’s quick recovery is due to the high percentage of essential industries. Hospitality and tourism were hardest hit by the pandemic but make up a relatively small portion of the local economy.
Now that Stanislaus County has moved into a less restrictive tier for reopening, “there will be an incremental boost to business and employment in restaurants and retail,” Michael previously told the Bee. But I expect it will be very incremental, since the overall recovery in consumer spending and income is slowing substantially.”
Overall, Michael said, the current pace of recovery is to be expected, leading into a long-term recuperation in 2021 and 2022.
“There’s nothing too groundbreaking (in this month’s numbers),” he said, but this confirms that we’re moving forward.”
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published October 17, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
