Stanislaus County readies move to lower COVID-19 tier. Here are the changes you’ll see
If Stanislaus County can slow the spread of COVID-19 enough to move out of the most restrictive tier of closures this week, as the numbers strongly suggest, business owners and customers won’t have to guess what reopenings will be like.
County residents need only to look to our neighbors to the north and south, San Joaquin and Merced counties, respectively, to see what business-as-usual in red tier counties looks like. Restaurants are among the industries most anticipating the move, because it means they can once again reopen for inside dining.
Jody Hayes, chief executive officer for the county, said Friday there’s a “strong possibility” the county will move into the red tier Tuesday. County public health keeps a close watch on coronavirus data but some metrics of the state scoring system are not known in advance of the state updates announced every Tuesday.
But a red status does not mean residents are out of danger of catching the virus, which has infected at least 16,950 people in the county and killed 383 as of Friday.
“We are heading in the right direction,” Hayes said. “It is the result of community members doing the best job they can in slowing the spread of coronavirus. The community should be applauded for that and understand more can be done to allow more businesses” to reopen.
San Joaquin County moved into the less restrictive red tier Sept. 29 and Merced County followed a week later this Tuesday, Oct. 6. If Stanislaus County opens on Tuesday it would prompt a slew of reopenings and expansions for industries that have been closed completely or limited to outside service before.
San Joaquin, Merced county restaurants opened almost immediately
Many restaurants in Ripon, Escalon and Hilmar opened their doors as soon as they could. For Escalon breakfast and lunch spot the Waffle Factory, just off busy Highway 120, that meant giving the carpets a cleaning, removing shared items from tables and then reopening the next morning.
“I would be ready because you’re going to get busy,” said waitress Roxanne Rodriguez, whose father owns Waffle Factory. “People are ready to get back to normal. People are ready to be back inside. Everyone is so grateful and so nice. They really appreciate it.”
Moving from purple to red means restaurants, which had previously been limited to takeout, delivery and outdoor dining only while in the purple tier, will be able to reopen inside at 25% capacity or 100 people, whichever is smaller.
But many other industries also are anxiously awaiting the county’s exit from the purple tier. That encompasses many businesses which have until now been either fully closed or offering only outside service. They include gyms and fitness/yoga studios (which will be able to open inside at 10%), dance studios (inside at 10%), personal care services (like esthetician, skincare and massage services), movie theaters (25% or 100 people), museums and zoos (25%) and tattoo and piercing shops.
Other businesses that had already been open for inside shopping, like malls and retail stores, may increase inside capacity. But all businesses must follow additional safety precautions including masks, enhanced cleaning protocols and more.
Churches are also allowed to resume indoor service and weddings can be held inside as well, with both capped at the lesser of 25% capacity or 100 people.
Still remaining closed even in the red tier will be concert and live theater venues, bars, breweries and nightclubs that don’t serve food, saunas and steam rooms and family entertainment centers.
Some remain cautious, worried about COVID-19 closure rollbacks
Many of the businesses waiting to reopen have also been here before. In late May, when the state was using a watchlist instead of colored tier system to denote coronavirus safety restrictions, many industries reopened for inside service including restaurants, hair salons and shopping malls. But those openings were short-lived as a surge in COVID-19 cases across the state forced rollbacks in July.
Chef John Surla, who has restaurants in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties, said he feels wary about fully reopening both places. He opened his Ripon restaurant Fina immediately when the county moved to red. The upscale Italian eatery can have up to 60 diners inside right now, but has capacity for 300 when fully open. He recommends customers call in reservations for indoor dining, and to try to keep their groups small. And, because many restaurants have been operating with smaller staffs through the pandemic, he urges patrons to be patient.
But he plans to hold off on opening his Modesto namesake restaurant Surla’s. The fine-dining spot just off downtown Modesto was closed through much of the early coronavirus crisis only to reopen in May for the first round of restriction loosening. But then at the start of July it shut down entirely again, when inside dining was rolled back.
“I’m going to wait it out first, they already did this to me,” Surla said. “It’s very heartbreaking to have to fire people, so I want to be 100% that we’ll stay open before we start making these calls. It’s easy to open, but just as easy to close.”
The county’s numbers were holding firm, as of Thursday, with a test positivity rate of 4.7 percent, well within the state criteria of 8 percent. Its daily case rate of 4.8 per 100,000 was below the 7 per 100,000 required for red status.
The state expects the county to meet those criteria for two weeks in order to leave the purple tier for red. The California Department of Public Health introduced a new health equity metric last week that’s expected to slow counties with more than 106,000 population in moving to less restrictive tiers.
In Stanislaus County, the health equity metric means the test positivity rate must be under 8 percent in low-income areas that suffered severe impacts from the pandemic. Last week, the positive test rate in those neighborhoods was an average 5.1 percent, a county spokesperson said.
In one possible red flag, the county reported 82 new cases Thursday and 64 on Friday. The county needs to consistently stay below 40 cases per day for red status. The two-day jump did not dampen the hopes of county leaders who want to see more business activity and people return to work.
Hayes said the state looks at the case average over a 7-day period. “The number for one single day would not worry us,” the CEO said. “Multiple days in a row would be a concern.”
Most schools still two weeks away from reopening once in red tier
School districts in the county are also closely watching the numbers. Schools at all grade levels can reopen with mitigations in the red tier. The state will require the county to stay in the red for two weeks, or until Oct. 27, before middle schools and high schools are eligible to open. In Stanislaus County, many schools have applied for or received approval for in-person instruction in kindergarten through sixth grades under purple-tier waivers.
Hayes said that school districts would make their own decisions on when to reopen campuses. In the red tier, schools that reopen are expected to follow a host of state guidelines and procedures to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks among students and staff.
Expect some changes, and other things to stay the same, from city governments across the county. In Ceres, City Manager Tom Westbrook said staff will consider opening facilities such as the community center and City Hall. In-person City Council meetings following safety guidelines may begin in November depending on when the tier change occurs, Westbrook said in an email.
But most cities will not change their methods of compliance and enforcement for ongoing coronavirus restrictions and safety guidelines when the county enters the lower tier. Cities from Modesto to Turlock, Ceres and Patterson are relying on submitted complaints. Citizens are encouraged to email the Stanislaus County Health Services Agency about violations they see at HSA-COVID-19info@schsa.org.
Westbrook said in Ceres, code enforcement officers follow up with business owners after community members report alleged violations and will continue the same educational approach in the next tier.
Cities to follow same enforcement procedures for coronavirus guidelines
Turlock and Patterson will also stick with education-based enforcement driven by complaints, city managers said in emails. Turlock staff do not anticipate changing other policies because of the move to the red tier, but City Manager Toby Wells said they will monitor the situation. The city plans to allow citizens to remotely participate in City Council meetings with Zoom even after it allows in-person public comments in November at the earliest, Wells added.
For Patterson, remote council meetings will continue when Stanislaus County enters the less restrictive tier because of the chamber room size, City Manager Ken Irwin said. Staff are discussing whether to reopen utility billing and building department services to the public at limited capacity, however.
Stanislaus County has to remain in the red tier for at least three weeks before the state will consider if disease transmission is low enough for moving to orange. COVID-19 is spreading at moderate levels within counties in the orange tier.
To move into orange, the county must have a daily case rate below 3.9 per 100,000 and testing positivity of 4.9 percent or less. Counties with minimal spread of coronavirus are placed in the yellow tier.
While business owners are anxious to move to the lower tier, local economists said to expect the incremental reopenings to have incremental economic impacts.
Jeff Michael, executive director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific in Stockton, said in a written statement that restaurants could see some of the biggest effects, though the move to 25 percent indoor dining might not be enough to allow fully closed restaurants to reopen.
“If Stanislaus county consumers react positively, there will be an incremental boost to business and employment in restaurants and retail,” he said. “But I expect it will be very incremental, since the overall recovery in consumer spending and income is slowing substantially.”
Still for restaurants across the county, like the new Legends Grill & Bar in Hilmar, every little bit helps. Opened Aug. 1, the new restaurant in the old Lola Bistro space has a large patio that can seat 50. Inside dining adds another 18 seats. Their first day of inside dining was Thursday, a couple days after Merced County moved to the red tier.
“Opening up the inside of a restaurant is always helpful, especially with how the weather has been lately and the smoke,” said Clarence Adams, whose son Michael Adams owns the restaurant. “So far the people want to go inside, even though it’s nice outside right now. (Eating inside) feels brand new to them, they’re excited.”
Bee staff reporters Kristina Karisch, Kristin Lam and Kevin Valine contributed to this report.
This story was originally published October 11, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
