Election analysis: Stanislaus County is redder than other parts of California

Numbers don’t lie.

Recent election results conclusively demonstrate that Stanislaus County is not part of California’s blue wave. California gave President-elect Joe Biden a 5 million-vote margin over President Trump, but that margin was only 1,696 votes in Stanislaus County, out of 217,517 ballots cast.

That shouldn’t have been a big surprise. In California, only 24.2% of registered voters are Republicans; in Stanislaus County the GOP jumps 11% to 35.5%. Democrats make up 46% of California voters but only 38.4% of Stanislaus voters. No Party Preference voters number 24% statewide, but 19% in this county.

Hillary Clinton carried the county in 2016, beating Trump by 3,153 votes. This past November President Trump received 25,751 more votes in the county than he did in 2016. But Biden got 24,194 more than Clinton received in 2016. Not only did voting participation increase in 2020, but voter registration of persons eligible to vote soared, from 78% in 2016 to 88% in 2020.

A little more than 19% of county voters this year live in unincorporated areas. This consists of farm country and communities like Del Rio, Wood Colony, Salida, Keyes, among others. These voters favored Trump by over 6,500 votes.

Five of our nine cities (Modesto, Ceres, Patterson, Newman and Riverbank) favored Biden, and four lined up with Trump (Turlock, Hughson, Waterford and Oakdale.) The overall cities’ total favored Biden by 8,340 votes.

The first (northeast Stanislaus County) and second (southeast) supervisorial districts favored Trump, with Biden winning the third (Salida), fourth (Modesto) and fifth (Ceres and West Side) districts. The first and fifth districts were polar opposites, with Trump wining the first by 6,833 votes, and losing the fifth by 7,647. The first district also had the highest voter turnout at 81.7%, while the fifth district had the lowest at 72.1%.

In the other countywide partisan race, Rep. Josh Harder was the leading democratic vote-getter in the county, receiving 10,000 more votes than Biden. However, his opponent, Ted Howze, received more than 8,000 fewer than Trump. According to news sources, this congressional contest was one of the few in the entire country where the GOP congressional candidate underperformed compared to Trump.

Notable results:

• Highest vote percentage in a contested race: Carole Dovichi of the Empire Union School District was reelected with 71.3% of the vote. Coming in second was new Riverbank council member Rachel Hernandez at 71.2%.
• Condit trifecta! Not just one, or two, but three members of the Condit family were successful in seeking office this year. Channce Condit was elected to the fifth supervisorial district, his cousin Buck to the first supervisorial district, and Channce’s brother Couper to the Ceres City Council. Bragging rights in the Condit family this year go to Channce, since he received 60% of the vote, besting Buck by 1.3%.
• Husbands following wives. Mayor Amy Bublak of Turlock is a longtime elected leader in Turlock. Last month her husband, Milt Richards, was elected to the Yosemite Community College District Board of Trustees. Richards won by 88 votes out of 36,618 votes cast, or .002%. His friends now call him “Landslide.”

How would you like be a county registrar of voters in your first term when the Legislature reforms voting rules, a bitterly contested presidential election is scheduled, voter registration and participation soars, and you have to account for a pandemic at the same time?

Donna Linder and her staff deserve nothing but accolades for their outstanding performance during this most difficult of election years. Balloting and voting were seamless. It was efficient, professional, and fully transparent. We are lucky to have Linder and her crew in charge of our elections.

This story was originally published December 20, 2020 at 5:00 AM.