What Stanislaus candidates did wrong — and right — in June primary races
Republicans did something nonsensical, and something else that could prove smart, in this week’s Stanislaus-area primary election.
First, the foolish thing: Running six Republicans in Senate District 4, among the most conservative in California. Because GOP voters failed to coalesce behind one of their candidates, none appears headed to the November runoff.
It’s a monumental disaster for Republicans, who cannot afford to lose one more seat in a state Legislature already dominated by Democrats.
Unless early returns change as outstanding votes are counted, Democrats Tim Robertson and Marie Alvarado-Gil both will find themselves on the November ballot. And Republicans George Radanovich, Steven Bailey, Jeff McKay, Jack Griffith, Jolene Daly and Michael Gordon will be out in the cold.
Democratic operatives must be laughing themselves silly. The newly created seat runs through 13 counties, most of them in foothill areas plus Stanislaus County. The GOP could not have hoped for a safer conservative seat.
But with no incumbent, too many eager Republicans jumped into the fray and the GOP vote was diluted six ways. This allowed both Dems to sneak into the runoff, assuming their leads hold.
That should be a lesson to both parties.
CA Assembly
Now for the smart thing Republicans did — and by smart I mean if the end justifies the means, because it also was a little sneaky: GOP leaders may have influenced the Democratic vote in Stanislaus County’s main Assembly race, for District 22 (incumbent Assemblyman Heath Flora is unopposed in District 9).
First, it’s no surprise that Republican Juan Alanis, having come within 3 1/2 percentage points of Jeff Dirkse in the Stanislaus sheriff’s race four years ago, leads the Assembly pack. The question always was who his fall opponent will be — Jessica Self or Chad Condit, both Democrats.
Republicans think Alanis will have an easier road against Self. So the California Republican Party sent voters a mailer attacking Condit over business dealings and resulting legal trouble from two Baskin-Robbins stores his family ran in 2005 and 2006 in Arizona.
Condit, or an independent committee supporting him, also went too far in attacks against Self, a public defender whose job requires uncommon courage. Saying that her “main qualification to run for the Assembly is a career spent defending criminals like murderers, arsonists, and pedophiles” was a misleading and undeserved cheap shot, and probably backfired, costing Condit more votes than he gained from it.
If her lead holds, Self will face Alanis in November — exactly what GOP leaders want, because she will be easier to paint as a liberal than Condit would have been.
Congress
In U.S. House races, it should surprise no one that local businessman John Duarte and state Assemblyman Adam Gray will face off in November for the 13th Congressional District covering Ceres and areas west of Highway 99. That one could be fun to watch.
Less interesting will be the race for District 5. Although Modesto, most of Turlock and areas east of Highway 99 (except Ceres) are in that district, it stretches across seven more mostly conservative mountain counties where Republican Tom McClintock has broad support.
Congressional District 5 and state Senate District 4 are similar in that both lean heavily to the right and are considered safe for Republicans. The difference: While GOP candidates in the senate race cannibalized themselves, voters in the congressional race consolidated behind McClintock.
It will be interesting to see how much, if any, support Democratic leaders toss to McClintock’s November opponent, Mike Barkley. With no other Democrat on the ballot, Democratic voters lifted Barkley to second place on Tuesday, leaving behind three other GOP candidates (Nathan Magsig, David Main and Kelsten Obert).
But there is little chance that Barkley’s progressive message will resonate in November in a crimson-red district whose voters are fed up with rising prices of gas and groceries.
This story was originally published June 9, 2022 at 12:00 PM.
