Harder out, Gray in — how Democrats’ jockeying affects Stanislaus voters
Tuesday’s round of musical chairs by Democratic politicians running for Congress should grab the attention of Stanislaus County voters.
The big switch has Rep. Josh Harder deciding to run for the Stockton-centric Ninth District instead of the 13th District, which includes west Modesto and part of Turlock and runs all the way through Merced and Madera counties into Fresno County. The new front-runner there is Adam Gray, who has represented the heart of that district for the past decade in the California Assembly.
At first blush, this could look like bad news for Stanislaus voters because it probably means we won’t have a local representative in either of the two new House seats splitting Stanislaus County since ruinous redistricting boundaries were announced in late December.
Currently, the only state or federal office holder representing Stanislaus who actually lives here is Harder (Senators Anna Caballero, Susan Eggman and Andreas Borgeas respectively live in Salinas, Stockton and Fresno, and Assemblymen Heath Flora and Gray respectively live in Ripon and Merced).
Also, Stanislaus farmers might regret losing a strong defender in Washington, D.C. of their senior water rights on the Tuolumne and Stanislaus rivers. And Harder had championed a dam proposed in the Del Puerto Canyon, which will be a godsend to West Side growers, and others, if it ever gets built.
Harder better know what he’s getting into, by the way. Only 27% of the district he seeks is familiar with him — Manteca and Tracy — while the other 73% were formerly in Rep. Jerry McNerney’s district centered in Stockton (McNerney’s retirement announcement set in motion Tuesday’s dominoes).
Eggman, who has represented Stockton many years in the state Legislature, wouldn’t have to change her water policy philosophy defending San Joaquin Delta interests — like Harder will, if she were to challenge him. Would Eggman’s name recognition be enough to overcome Harder’s prodigious campaign money-raising machine?
But enough about our neighbors. Stanislaus County remains The Modesto Bee’s priority.
While losing Harder might be hard, Gray has an even longer track record defending our precious water rights — and those on the Merced River, too.
Although Harder is about as close to the center of the political spectrum as you can get, Gray might appeal to even more conservatives.
Stanislaus loves moderates
Despite Harder’s reputation as a pragmatic centrist, I don’t remember him getting into trouble with leaders of his own party. Not like Gray, who lost committee assignments in both 2015 and 2020 when Democratic leaders punished him for standing up for our water interests.
House politicians seeking to represent Stanislaus County avoid extremes, if they’re smart. Republican Jeff Denham exemplified that until Donald Trump came along, then moved right and got thumped in 2018 by Harder — who easily swatted away a minor threat from the hard right’s Ted Howze in 2020.
Before them, Dennis Cardoza thrived in the middle, following the lead of his former boss, Gary Condit, the original Blue Dog Democrat who three decades ago enjoyed nearly as much support from Republicans as from fellow Democrats. Coincidentally, Gray used to be married to Condit’s daughter, Cadee.
Yes, in this column I’ve ignored the other Stanislaus House district — the Fifth, which will represent most of Modesto, Turlock and the county’s east and north sides. It also spreads through mountain regions from El Dorado County down to Fresno County — a conservative swath considered to be a Republican stronghold, and GOP Congressman Tom McClintock is the early favorite there. We’ll deal with that race — and others in the state Senate and Assembly — in time.
Look for The Bee’s candidate debates in April ahead of the June primary. It’s going to be an exciting ride.
