Looking forward to 2022, Stanislaus GOP can do a lot better than Ted Howze
Surely the Republican Party in this area can come up with a better congressional option in 2022.
If Republicans had chosen more wisely this year, they might have had a fighting chance at winning back the District 10 House seat they lost to Democrats in 2018.
The GOP in November reclaimed four of seven California seats they’d lost two years before. The flip back from blue to red is not as far-fetched as you might think — if voters are presented with a viable candidate. Ted Howze was not.
Incumbent Josh Harder and his Democratic Party made the most of revelations about vile, bigoted content on Howze’s social media, taking shots at Muslims, Blacks, immigrants and massacre survivors. Howze’s response — that he actually didn’t write the offensive material — was handled poorly. His goose was cooked when leaders from his own party on both state and national levels dropped him like a toxic torpedo.
Howze vowed to fight on. More than half of the $1.5 million he raised came from his own pocket. His stubbornness kept the campaign going, but also proved his undoing.
That’s because his biggest problem was his blindness to the Valley electorate. Howze seemed bound and determined to reach the right wing of his party — those who were going to vote for him anyway.
Certainly there are hardcore conservatives among us. But they’re outnumbered by centrist voters, and maybe always have been.
For three decades, Democrat Gary Condit feasted on broad appeal to the center of both parties, and to independents, in his long political run that began in 1972 in Ceres and passed through Sacramento before a long run in Congress. His support from Republicans was legendary, as was his willingness to buck Democratic leadership when he felt that doing so was best for his people back in “Condit Country.” Some joked that he was really a Republican disguised as a Democrat.
Dennis Cardoza had similar appeal, relying on centrist votes. Jeff Denham started his political career near the center before sliding right about the time Donald Trump came on the scene.
Denham wasn’t hard-core enough for Howze, so Howze challenged him in the 2018 Primary. Although Howze didn’t advance to the November runoff that year, he surprised many with a decent showing that suggested at least some conservative voters also had become disenchanted with Denham, and Howze quickly declared he would try again in 2020.
GOP leaders knew Howze would be unlikely to win over many Democrats or those with no party preference. So they recruited Bob Elliott, a former Army colonel and county supervisor who looks good on paper.
10th District’s heart is Stanislaus County
The insurmountable problem: Elliott’s political base is in San Joaquin County, where he lives and held office, and he was scarcely known here in Stanislaus County, where most 10th District voters reside. He could not compete with the head start of Howze, who enjoyed some name recognition from the 2018 campaign plus four years on the Turlock City Council. Howze (34%) creamed Elliott (13%) in the March Primary for the right to face Harder in November.
Harder, meanwhile, kept a torrid pace, co-sponsoring more bipartisan legislation than any other House Democrat. Harder had the audacity to venture into military issues — Denham’s previous stronghold — and wrote legislation helping Vietnam veterans exposed to Agent Orange. His fiery speech on the House floor demanding relief money for people suffering from COVID-19 closures was inspiring. All suggest someone serious about appealing to all voters, regardless of party.
Howze’s refusal to acknowledge the 10th District’s purple core — neither wholly red or blue — was almost comical. One of his last campaign mailers evoked “human traffickers, drug smugglers and terrorists” pouring into the U.S. — a classic scare tactic scoring him points with his far-right base and no one else.
Howze has not yet summoned the decency to concede, despite losing to Harder by more than 31,000 votes; Harder got past Denham two years earlier by less than 10,000.
Elsewhere in California, Republicans David Valadeo, Young Kim, Michelle Steele and Mike Garcia all beat Democratic incumbents — despite running in a state where Donald Trump got half as many votes as Joe Biden.
Stanislaus GOP still packs a punch
The GOP remains a force to be reckoned with here in the Valley. Stanislaus County voters preferred Biden to Trump by only 1,696 votes among 215,000 cast.
Boundaries for congressional seats will be redrawn before the 2022 election, and California could lose some seats. But it’s a safe bet Harder will want to continue representing Stanislaus County.
If Republicans are serious about reclaiming a House seat here, they need to come up with someone who appeals to more than just conservatives. They’ve done it before, with the likes of Dick Monteith, Dave Cogdill, Kristin Olsen, Anthony Cannella, Heath Flora, even Denham.
They need someone whose poor sportsmanship won’t prevent picking up a phone to congratulate the winner.
They need someone a whole lot different from Ted Howze.
