Stanislaus County wins — and loses — with new redistricting maps
It looks like mixed results for Stanislaus County in the all-important redistricting process.
The once-a-decade effort to redraw political boundaries improved our lot in the California Senate, was a wash in the state Assembly and bludgeoned us in Congress.
Let’s deal first with the worst. Instead of Stanislaus County fitting neatly into a single, unified House of Representatives district — a blessing we’ve enjoyed for the past 10 years — Stanislaus will be split among three congressional districts, according to maps unanimously approved Monday by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission.
It’s the exact opposite of what we need, deserve and argued for. Who sticks up for us in Washington, D.C. if Stanislaus ends up represented by politicians respectively in Fresno, El Dorado and San Joaquin counties? That’s an entirely plausible scenario, thanks to the senseless three-way congressional split we’ll be forced to live with in the coming decade.
We have no room for intricate maps on The Modesto Bee’s opinions page on weekdays, but I’ll try to describe this nightmare. All of the west side of Stanislaus County — including Ceres, west Modesto, Patterson and Newman will be in the 13th Congressional District along with Merced County and parts of Madera and Fresno counties.
Most of Modesto would be in the Fifth District along with most of east Stanislaus County, including Turlock, Oakdale, Riverbank, Hughson and Waterford. But that new congressional district also stretches through the entire Mother Lode (including Tuolumne County) north to El Dorado Hills and south to Tulare County. It will be a conservative district.
Stanislaus’ northeast, sparsely inhabited tip will be in the Ninth District dominated by San Joaquin County.
A natural immediate question: What happens to our current congressman, U.S. Rep. Josh Harder?
No one knows, yet. The phone calls must be flying back and forth between the Turlock Democrat, elected in 2018 to represent all of Stanislaus in the House, and other Democratic incumbents, including Jerry McNerney to the north and Jim Costa to the south.
Remember that House representatives need not live in the district they represent.
What if Merced’s Adam Gray, a popular state Assembly Democrat, sets his sights on Congress? Most of his historic base is in the 13th.
Could McNerney, 70, be persuaded to retire? That could make the Ninth attractive to Harder, who is popular in Tracy and Manteca. But state Senator Susan Talamantes Eggman of Stockton might have designs to move up, and would be formidable in the Ninth’s Stockton base.
Stanislaus gels in CA Senate
One imagines redistricting commissioners — having decimated Stanislaus in Congress — throwing us a bone by keeping the entire county in a single state Senate district, the Fourth. That’s a reversal of fortunes for Stanislaus, which has been split into three senate districts for the past decade. Personally, I would rather see Stanislaus remain whole in a single congressional district, but I don’t get a vote here.
Whoever gets that Fourth senate seat will have their work cut out, however, because it will also comprise all mountain counties to the east, from Lake Tahoe to Death Valley. It’s huge.
Lastly, Stanislaus is used to being split in two Assembly districts, and that will continue, although they’ve been reconfigured.
Modesto, Ceres, Turlock and the West Side will be together in a compact district taking in north Merced County. That could be perfect for former Senator Anthony Cannella, a moderate Republican who could serve another three Assembly terms under term limit rules.
Salida, Riverbank and Oakdale will be in the new Ninth Assembly District along with east San Joaquin County up to Sacramento County. It’s a solid GOP area that looks to be a good fit for Ripon Assemblyman Heath Flora, a Republican.
Much will depend on who decides to run where before filing periods open in January for the June primary. Things will heat up in the next few weeks, so stay tuned.
