Stanislaus County can’t relax on COVID until lots more of us get vaccinated

So California is under another indoor mask mandate. Is there reason to panic here in Stanislaus County?

For a week we’ve been either at or near the top of California’s 58 counties for new COVID-19 infections, according to the U.S. Centers of Disease Control data tracker.

While Stanislaus is the state’s 16th largest county, we’re fifth highest in newly reported deaths, ninth in deaths per 100,000 people, and 10th in cases per 100,000 people, according to California’s dashboard.

By the end of 2020, Stanislaus had lost 586 souls to the coronavirus. Since then, the death toll has jumped 149%, to 1,459. If you don’t know someone who has died of COVID, you’re either lucky or don’t get out much.

So even though Stanislaus officials have backed off providing COVID updates — presenting them once a month rather than twice, in Board of Supervisors meetings — we are not out of the woods. And the emerging omicron variant won’t help.

Is there any good news at all?

Well, yes.

Remember in the fall when it seemed that our local mask mandate would never end? That’s when our cases per 100,000 population remained stubbornly higher than 20, the magic threshold. The mandate finally was lifted in November when it dipped below 20, and our current seven-day average is 14 cases per 100,000 people, the state says.

That’s still higher than the statewide average infection rate of 13. But it’s close, and you take your wins any way you can get them. Also, the number of people hospitalized here with COVID is much less than at the peak of the Delta variant surge in September.

That sliver of optimism, however, should not give us false hope.

The only way to stay comfortably out of COVID trouble is to have a high percentage of our population protected from this mostly preventable disease. That means getting a vaccine.

Forget politics as you consider the following: Nearly 86% of Stanislaus people infected and 91% of our people who died from COVID since June were not vaccinated.

It’s not a political question. The coronavirus does not care which party you belong to, or how loudly you proclaim your sovereignty and love of personal freedom or how vigorously you condemn medical tyranny.

The virus only reacts to whether you’ve been vaccinated. If you are and you suffer a rare breakthrough case, you probably will survive and you probably will not get nearly as sick. And you probably won’t sicken your loved ones and others with whom you come in contact.

If you’re not vaccinated, all bets are off.

This, then, becomes the most important numerical predictor: Only 53.4% of eligible Stanislaus residents are fully vaccinated, and less than 63% have received one dose.

That’s not even close to what it should be. Statewide, 70% are fully vaccinated; 34 of California’s 58 counties are doing better than us in this regard.

It’s sad that some selfish people preparing for family holiday gatherings care more about rampant misinformation supporting a distorted worldview than they do about the health of elderly parents and grandparents.

Family vaccine mandates?

A law firm surveyed 3,758 Americans in November and produced an interactive map reflecting, by state, people’s insistence that family members be vaccinated before gathering. In California, it’s 70%, compared to 53% in Texas.

Masks? Yes, all people are expected to follow the state rule and wear them indoors through Jan. 15, even if they’re vaccinated.

But we know from experience — and from observing stores and restaurants in Modesto and surrounding cities — that many ignore the rules. Our law enforcement leaders consistently have looked the other way.

Gov. Gavin Newsom himself gave a half-baked answer when a reporter on Wednesday asked about enforcement of the new mask mandate: “I have more faith than you do in the capacity of people to do the right thing. That’s the response.”

Having faith and being realistic are two different things.

So yes, wear your mask. It’s not forever, it won’t kill you and it might save someone.

But the best, most helpful, most effective, most unselfish thing you can do is to get vaccinated.