Gov. Gavin Newsom isn’t terribly popular in Stanislaus County. Here’s why
Any progressive politician feeling safe in Stanislaus County is playing with fire.
Tuesday’s gubernatorial recall election is the latest proof that conservatives here continue to pack a punch. It’s a simple fact that most Stanislaus voters — 51.7% of those counted so far — favored getting rid of Gov. Gavin Newsom.
He will stay in office, of course, because nearly two-thirds of voters statewide rejected the recall.
Why did Newsom fare poorly here?
Aside from his mask, vaccine and school policies during COVID-19, which many detest, here are some reasons.
First, conservative candidates for governor have done well here in the past. Stanislaus voters favored Republican John Cox over Newsom in 2018, and preferred Republican Meg Whitman over Jerry Brown by more than 6 percentage points in 2010 (Brown easily outpolled Neel Kashkari here in his 2014 reelection, but Kashkari didn’t pose a serious threat).
Second, Newsom did himself no favors by failing to secure our farmers’ disputed access to irrigation water. He might have used his unique influence to advance the voluntary agreements that would guarantee our water rights. In a late July interview with McClatchy Newspapers’ California opinion editors, he told me that an announcement was forthcoming, but it didn’t — not before Tuesday’s election, anyway.
Third, we called out Newsom shortly after he was elected for flip-flopping on capital punishment. In a discussion with our Modesto Bee Editorial Board (led by my predecessor) in fall 2016, Newsom pledged not to go against the will of voters on the death penalty, and 2 1/2 years later did exactly that with a controversial moratorium.
Laci Peterson, a high-profile murder victim, was one of us. Her husband, Scott Peterson, is on death row. We take it personally when someone promises us one thing and delivers another.
No one likes to feel ignored. Newsom seemed to ignore our people on both water and capital punishment. He cannot turn his back on us and expect us to embrace him.
Most counties opposing Newsom on Tuesday lean right, including Tuolumne (60% “yes” votes), Calaveras (61.7%), Kern (58.1%) and Mariposa (59.7%).
But Stanislaus is not a solidly red county.
Voters here preferred Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump when the latter won in 2016, and Joe Biden over Trump in 2020. And we’ve elected Democratic Congressman Josh Harder of Turlock twice — over Republicans Jeff Denham in 2018 and Ted Howze in 2020.
Harder won last year because Howze was a particularly pathetic candidate, appealing only to his base on the right while blind to the middle.
What recall means to Harder
Harder’s camp is acutely aware that he does not represent a liberal district. Despite two decisive victories and a massive campaign fund, he is considered among the more vulnerable California Democrats; opponents so far include Republicans Jack Griffith, Simon Aslanpour and Jolene Daly, and Democrat Angelina Sigala. Harder’s campaign regularly sends supporters notes pleading for donations and reminding them how exposed he supposedly is.
Tuesday’s outcome — with Stanislaus voters spurning Newsom — won’t instill Harder with confidence. He also knows that an independent commission redrawing district boundaries could very well force him to run in a more conservative district than the one he now represents.
Newsom may owe his statewide victory to the emergence of Larry Elder, whose loony stances made Tuesday’s vote throughout California more about rejecting Elder than about Newsom’s performance as governor. Without Elder around to mobilize fearful Democrats, Newsom might have been in trouble.
But Harder — and all other centrist Stanislaus politicians — would do well to remember that people here gave Elder seven times more votes Tuesday than the next most successful recall candidate (Kevin Faulconer, 7.9%). Elder received 55.2% of the vote here, compared to less than 47% statewide.
The lesson remains: Discount the power of Stanislaus’ conservative voters at one’s own peril.
This story was originally published September 16, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
