Garth Stapley: Here are my takeaways from Modesto, Stanislaus County races
Modesto mayor is a nonpartisan office, so candidates’ parties generally aren’t discussed during campaigns. But lessons can be learned from Tuesday’s results when viewed through a partisan lens.
Of the six candidates with a realistic chance for success, four — council members Doug Ridenour and Kristi Ah You, incumbent Ted Brandvold, and Rick Countryman — competed with each other for right-leaning voters, and paid a price. Naramsen Goriel siphoned relatively few left-leaning votes from centrist Democrat Sue Zwahlen, and she ended up collecting enough votes to lead the entire pack.
Ridenour received the next most, so it looks like he and Zwahlen will face each other in a Feb. 2 runoff.
Modesto races engage voters
Moving from odd- to even-year elections is a wild success in Modesto, if you value voter participation.
In the last mayoral race, in November 2015, 23,169 Modestans cast votes for mayor. This year, early returns show 49,000 votes for mayor — a stunning increase, and all votes haven’t even been counted yet.
The same trend holds true for Modesto City Council seats, where people in District 1 cast 7,729 votes this year, compared to 4,009 five years ago. Votes in District 3 likewise increased from 4,728 in 2015 to 8,839 so far this year, and from 3,929 in District 6 to 8,820 this year.
(See updated Stanislaus County results of all races)
Looks like a Condit sweep
The revival of the Condit political machine might be among the most intriguing subtexts emerging in this election.
Three candidates of that name may end up in the winner’s circle. One or more might be expected to seek other offices for perhaps decades to come.
Voters remember the political prowess of Gary Condit, a popular centrist whose career started with the Ceres City Council and progressed through the county Board of Supervisors to the California Assembly before serving in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1989 to 2003. Many assumed he was invincible until a romance scandal involving Chandra Levy, a former federal intern killed in Washington, D.C. (he wasn’t implicated in her death) ended Condit’s career.
His son, Chad, lost a bid for the House in 2012. Chad’s sons Channce and Couper were ahead Tuesday in their respective races for Stanislaus County supervisor and Ceres City Council. And their older cousin once removed, Buck Condit, is far ahead in another race for county supervisor.
The Condits are to be commended for working hard and appealing to many. And the power of the Condit name should never be underestimated.
Was Zoslocki hurt by council dysfunction?
Trailing Buck Condit in the District 1 race for county supervisor is Bill Zoslocki. In the March primary, Zoslocki pulled in more votes than Condit (37.9% to 33.1%), but Zoslocki’s support in Modesto proper — where he serves as a level-headed city councilman — was weaker than expected. Although not his fault, he probably was hurt by the council’s notorious dysfunction.
Nate Silver underestimates Josh Harder
The latest from Nate Silver’s 538 model predicted U.S. Rep. Josh Harder would win with a comfortable 56% of the vote. Tuesday’s results suggest he’ll end up with even more.
Harder’s team sent a “This is not good” email to supporters Monday, noting that Republicans had returned more ballots than Democrats in recent days. But that was more about seeking last-minute donations than serious concern.
Harder was busy in his first two-year term, meeting often with people throughout the district and carrying an impressive legislative load in Washington, D.C. Harder joined with Republicans in legislative efforts more than any other Democratic member of Congress, so it’s not surprising that he would appeal to more crossover voters than his far-right-leaning opponent.
The GOP’s Ted Howze put up an impressive number of large campaign signs around Congressional District 10, which is Stanislaus County plus south San Joaquin County. But Howze’s message did not resonate with enough centrist voters in a district that seems to increasingly skew left.
And Howze certainly hurt his chances when news agencies revealed bigoted messages on his social media accounts. It’s not surprising that early returns show him capturing a smaller share than former Rep. Jeff Denham (47.7%) did against Harder two years ago.
Looks like McCord in Patterson
Did David Keller’s anti-dam message fail to resonate with Patterson voters? Opposition to a controversial reservoir proposed in nearby Del Puerto Canyon was the former mayor’s main campaign emphasis as he tried to regain the post he last held in 2006.
My guess is that voters are just more comfortable sticking with someone already on the job. Dennis McCord, a city councilman for the past six years, was far ahead of Keller and Mark Miles.
Senate District 5 favors Dems
Let’s face it: Until redrawn, Senate District 5 will always favor a Democrat from San Joaquin County over a Stanislaus Republican.
Nearly 72% of its voters are in San Joaquin County. And, 42% of voters in the district are Democrats, compared to only 30.6% Republicans.
With those factors, GOP candidate Jim Ridenour — a former Modesto mayor — never had a chance against Democrat Susan Talamantes Eggman. Terms limits are forcing her from a state Assembly seat, and she is more than prepared for the Senate job.
Props to Gray, Flora & Mayne
Congratulations to the following, who appear headed to easy victory: Assemblymen Heath Flora and Adam Gray, and Stanislaus judge candidate John R. Mayne.
All campaigned without an endorsement (so did their opponents) from The Modesto Bee Editorial Board, which long ago was forced to decide which races we could invest time and effort in studying and conducting interviews, among so many on an extremely crowded ballot.
We had to let these go because their races were deemed less competitive — in other words, it was clear they should easily prevail. I’m glad all are ahead.
This story was originally published November 4, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
