The conservative vote dominated Primary races in Stanislaus County
Conservatives in Stanislaus County should be pleased with results from Tuesday’s Primary. Although we don’t have final numbers, and may not for some time, what we’ve seen so far suggests a lean to the right in this historically purple area.
- Stanislaus voters cast 25,116 votes for Republican candidates for president, against only 22,751 votes for Democratic candidates. This, despite the fact there are more Democratic voters in Stanislaus County — 37.3%, compared to 34.2% GOP voters.
- The same trend held in other major races, like Congressional District 10, where 55% of votes were cast for three Republican candidates, compared to only 45% for three Democrats, including incumbent Rep. Josh Harder. He’s the early front runner, with 39.8% so far, but the GOP’s Ted Howze is close on his heels with 37.5%. They will run off in November.
- In Senate District 5, which is largely in San Joaquin County but includes some of Modesto, all of Riverbank and a slice of south Sacramento County — 50.7% of votes were cast for GOP candidates, against 49.3% for Democrats, including front-runner Susan Talamantes Eggman, a state assemblywoman. Opposing her in November will be Republican Jim Ridenour of Modesto.
- All three races for Superior Court judge in Stanislaus County are easily being won by candidates who are prosecutors, typically popular in conservative circles.
- For the first time in memory, local Democratic leaders gave campaign money to candidates for judge. Both lost.
- All six school bonds here are losing, most by a lot. So is Proposition 13, a statewide school bond initiative, despite support from Republican state legislators and Democrats alike; it’s currently going down with 60% “no” votes across California; 74% of Stanislaus voters opposed it, according to early returns.
Traditionally, early voters — those who returned absentee ballots in the mail before Tuesday — tend to be conservative, while progressives’ strength comes on voting day at precinct polls. So yes, the above numbers will slide to the left as elections officials tally thousands of provisional ballots cast Tuesday.
But that’s not likely to change most of these conclusions. It’s a clear win for conservatives.
Howze deserves credit for mounting an aggressive campaign and for working hard. His political signs could be seen all over the place, while Harder’s were harder to find. Howze will be sitting pretty if voters who preferred two other GOP candidates in March (Bob Elliott and Marla Sousa Livengood) swing over to Howze in November.
Howze’s post-election press release expressed gratitude “for the overwhelming support I’ve received from Republican, independent and Democrat voters” in the 10th.
It’s doubtful that Harder is panicking, though. Two years ago, in the June 2018 Primary (remember when we used to vote in June?), Harder won less than half the votes of four-term incumbent Jeff Denham, and all six Democratic candidates combined for less than 48% of votes cast. But in November 2018, Harder shocked Denham, winning nearly 10,000 more votes among nearly 222,000 cast for 52.3%.
Some may argue with my basic premise and note that both races for Stanislaus County supervisor, even though they’re nonpartisan contests, are led by Republican Buck Condit and Democrat Channce Condit; people in both districts had more conservative options. True enough.
But the power of a familiar name cannot be overestimated, and the Condit name remains a force to be reckoned with. Former Congressman Gary Condit once was popular with crossover Republicans. He is Buck’s uncle and Channce’s grandfather, and it’s entirely possible that the first cousins, once removed could occupy two fifths the seats on the Stanislaus Board of Supervisors after the fall election.
Name recognition also boosted Ridenour, a respected mayor of Modesto a few years ago. He will have a hard time in November overcoming Eggman, however, whose political base is in San Joaquin County, where more than 70% of 5th District voters live.
November results will be influenced by external factors, including the all-consuming presidential race and expected higher turnout. But just about any way you cut it, Tuesday’s Primary was a resounding triumph for the conservative vote in Stanislaus County.
This story was originally published March 4, 2020 at 3:31 PM.
