Stanislaus County leaders must come clean on COVID-19 data before reopening schools

Proceed with extreme caution.

That’s the only sane approach to the suddenly confusing question of whether elementary schools throughout Stanislaus County should open sooner rather than later.

Parents and teachers — and the superintendent of Modesto City Schools — can be forgiven if they’re skeptical about news of an abrupt turnabout in our previously horrendous COVID-19 numbers. And, about what it might mean for reopening campuses.

All summer, Stanislaus data have reflected serious sickness and death.

More than half (119) of total Stanislaus COVID deaths (223, as of Thursday) have come in August alone, a startling and depressing uptick. Our positivity rate in test results for several weeks has been three times the state average. The threat level remains “extreme,” according to county health’s own posting.

We have little hope of getting off the state’s watch list for COVID hot spots, a requirement for schools above the elementary level. Our county rate of more than 600 infections per 100,000 population is not even close to the state threshold of 200 before health officials will even consider a school’s reopening waiver.

Or so we thought.

Now we’re told to disregard that set of numbers in favor of another that puts our dire situation in a more favorable light.

Apparently, the dreary data set that we’ve become accustomed to — from state and county documents, reported in numerous media, including The Modesto Bee — isn’t wrong. It just reflects a point on the timeline of someone’s illness; specifically, after testing determines that the person indeed has COVID and that result is reported publicly.

The new data set takes a few steps back in time to reflect the point when the patient became infected. The difference likely is a matter of days, but that — plus the state rectifying its results backlog — apparently are enough to radically alter one view of our community’s prognosis.

It was enough to prompt Kristin Olsen, chairwoman of the county Board of Supervisors, to share “thrilling” news Thursday on her personal Facebook page that county leaders hope grade schools can apply to reopen, if a downward trend continues.

Some people will be enthused at this turn of events.

Can we trust Stanislaus numbers?

Others will wonder why the county consistently has reported one set of numbers, but now wants to make life and death decisions based on other numbers that previously were hidden from public view.

Sara Noguchi, a former math teacher and now superintendent of Modesto City Schools, concluded that “the numbers simply do not add up” in a letter to the editor of The Modesto Bee.

Supervisors’ 9 a.m. Tuesday board meeting will be must-see viewing for those with stakes in these decisions.

County officials must make the most of this opportunity to clearly explain why the ground has suddenly shifted beneath our feet. They must remove any doubt that they’ve found a way to cook the books to appease short-sighted supervisors who have been hell-bent on appeasing some constituents by calling for schools to reconvene regardless of testing results and state reopening protocol.

They must convince everyone that they haven’t manipulated data, or come up with a creative way of interpreting numbers to get around state requirements meant to keep us safe. They must, as Noguchi said, provide “a detailed explanation behind the calculation of this data and the difference between the numbers.”

Other COVID reopenings failed

County officials must make a compelling case for taking tens of thousands of children now sheltering at home and having them instead circulate at school at a time when our threat level remains “extreme,” and when experiments to open schools in Georgia have failed miserably, forcing many to close again because of outbreaks.

Choices are not easy when they’re complicated by myriad factors including emotional and mental health, abuse reporting, nutrition, difficulty with devices and the well-being of adult staff as well as children. The fact that children can carry the coronavirus without knowing it, and can take it home to parents, grandparents and others, is not easily dismissed.

The decision to begin the current school year only with at-home distance learning was sound and united, shepherded by the Stanislaus County Office of Education in collaboration with superintendents of all 25 schools districts in our county. It looks like reopening applications will be fractured, left to the whims and desires of leaders in each district.

Teachers and parents must get and stay involved. They must make their voices heard.

And all must proceed with caution. Extreme caution.

This story was originally published August 22, 2020 at 4:00 AM.