Students in Stanislaus County could be headed back to class soon. Here’s how.
Stanislaus County is inviting school districts to apply for waivers so that elementary schools can reopen for classroom instruction even as the county remains under state monitoring as a coronavirus hot spot in California.
County leaders said they have growing optimism the waiver applications to the county Health Services Agency could be approved based on data interpretations that show the new case rate is on a sharp decline and could fall below a state threshold in five to seven days.
Modesto City Schools and other districts are preparing applications for waivers, which are likely to spark debate over whether it’s safe to reopen classrooms for kindergarten through sixth graders in a county that saw rampant increases in COVID-19 infections and deaths this summer.
The county released a graph Thursday showing the 14-day rolling case rate is 276 per 100,000 population and could fall to 200 per 100,000 next week. The Modesto Bee has tracked the case rate at a current 668 per 100,000 and the county’s infection rate remains that high on a Los Angeles Times coronavirus tracker and other media sites.
The lower number comes when basing the data off the “earliest date that the case can be known to have had the infection,” according to the state Department of Public Health. The higher number comes when “using the date the case was reported,” and is consistent with what the county is making public to residents.
A 14-day rate of 200 per 100,000 is the point at which county public health agencies can approve waivers for K-6 students to return to classrooms under safety guidelines. Stanislaus and other counties struggling with the pandemic will stay on the state’s watch list until the infection rate is 100 per 100,000 population. The county’s graph suggests that could possibly happen in September.
High school and junior high students must remain on distance learning until the county has been off the state monitoring list for 14 days.
As of Thursday, Stanislaus was among 37 counties firmly on the state watch list while a few others were close to being removed. Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in July that he expected distance learning would continue in hard hit counties at the start of the 2020-21 school year.
Stanislaus County’s invitation to school districts comes a week after Supervisor Terry Withrow suggested the county send a message to school boards that it won’t do enforcement if local districts reopen schools in violation of Newsom’s closure order. Withrow pointed out at last week’s Board of Supervisors meeting that schools provide nutrition to low-income children and report signs of abuse, plus disadvantaged students are falling behind on their education.
Board Chairwoman Kristin Olsen posted on Facebook Thursday that she was “thrilled” county public health was likely a week away from being able to approve waivers for K-6 schools based on a decline in coronavirus case numbers.
“We provided this information to school superintendents across the county this morning, so they can begin to prepare waiver submittals if they choose to,” Olsen’s post said.
“We are closer to that date than we originally anticipated, which is reason to celebrate,” Olsen said in a telephone interview.
Olsen said county public health won’t automatically approve the district applications. Elementary schools will have to show they’re following through with state requirements for face coverings and safe distancing.
Sara Noguchi, superintendent of Modesto City Schools, said Thursday the district will be applying for a waiver to open campuses for kindergarten to sixth grade students. The district has worked on different parts of the application for a number of weeks and is in discussions with unions representing teachers and school employees.
Noguchi said MCS still needs clarification on county requirements that the district provide COVID testing for students and staff, and also have some contact tracing responsibilities. “We are excited at the news that our infection rates have dramatically been reduced, and look forward to welcoming our students back to campus,” Noguchi said in an email.
Friday morning, Noguchi sought a detailed explanation of what she saw as conflicting data surrounding the COVID cases per 100,000 population. In a letter to the editor sent to the Modesto Bee, Noguchi said the real-time data on the state’s COVID-19 dashboard showed 3,600 positive cases for Stanislaus County in the past 14 days.
That number translates to 600-plus cases per 100,000, substantially higher than the state’s updated rate of 287.9 cases per 100,000 on Friday. “I am an educator, a math teacher specifically, and the numbers simply do not add up,” Noguchi wrote, adding it’s important for the public to receive a detailed explanation of the difference between the numbers.
Doug Burton, president of the Modesto Teachers Association, said the teachers union has concerns about a district application for a waiver and wants an open process for considering a waiver.
“MTA believes the governor was absolutely right when he emphatically said in his news conference that he doesn’t ‘believe anyone should be forced to put their life and health at risk,’” Burton said in a statement. “There are so many unknowns that threaten the long-term health and safety of students and educators, we believe we must take all precautions and preventative action to protect students, educators and our community.”
Burton said educators want to be back in classrooms and schools with their students doing the work they love, but any decision on a MCS waiver application must be made with parents and educators.
Scott Siegel, superintendent of Ceres Unified School District, said Thursday his office is evaluating the situation. Ceres Unified will talk with stakeholder groups and its board will be involved in making a decision on whether to seek a waiver, Siegel said.
Stanislaus County site still shows extreme COVID-19 threat
The county Health Services Agency was posting online this week the coronavirus threat level is “extreme.” Local hospitals are caring for 244 patients confirmed or suspected to have COVID-19 including 64 who are critically ill in intensive care units. The county was overrun by more than 6,000 new coronavirus cases in July and 119 deaths have been reported in August.
Some fear a reopening of schools will expose teachers to the respiratory illness and students could carry the virus home to infect parents or grandparents, making the local outbreak worse.
Efforts to open schools this month in Georgia and other states have backfired, with one county in Georgia quarantining 1,200 students soon after students returned to campuses, according to the New York Times. Two high schools in a suburban Atlanta county were promptly closed again until the end of the month.
Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, county health officer, released the chart showing a sudden drop in the coronavirus case rate. She said a slower rate of community spread became apparent after the state sorted through technical problems with a communicable disease recording system that skewed the coronavirus data in California for most of August.
The state system was shut down for a time early this month, which delayed counting of some 300,000 test results statewide. When the state system was restored, it reported some large daily case increases that were a mixture of older cases from July and newer positive tests.
Vaishampayan said the state culled out the old cases and then reported an updated 14-day infection rate for Stanislaus on the California Department of Public Health’s county data monitoring page, revealing a 275.8 per 100,000 rate. County public health ran its own calculations and came up with the same rate.
“We are pretty comfortable with the numbers,” the health officer said.
Still, in the past seven days, the county has reported 1,402 positive coronavirus tests and 3,854 negatives for a positivity rate of 26.7%, raising questions about why the infection rate is projected to keep going down.
Vaishampayan said she expects the trend line to drop below the state threshold next week. For that reason, it was time to ask school districts to submit waiver applications.
What’s the reason for ‘decline’ in coronavirus?
When asked why the case rate made a downward turn, Vaishampayan said state actions July 13 to close indoor dining at restaurants and other activities might have had a positive effect. She said she believes more compliance with face coverings and community mitigation measures began to work.
County health officials are wary that the reported case decline could induce people to stop wearing masks and taking precautions. That is not recommended.
Vaishampayan said there’s a good amount of science showing elementary students get infected less often and don’t transmit the virus as readily. The young students stay with the same classmates during the school day. Another reason for opening elementary schools is that remote learning is far more difficult for young students when compared with junior high and high schoolers.
General guidelines call for all but the youngest elementary students to wear masks and maintain 6 feet distance from other students and teachers.
There are more concerns about reopening high schools and middle schools during the coronavirus pandemic, because those students switch classrooms throughout the day and mix with other people on campus.
“It’s important to get the kids into school,” Vaishampayan said. “There is no urgency to open up, but we acknowledge we want our children in school.”
Vaishampayan acknowledged the county has seen alarming COVID-19 case statistics this summer, such as the 85 deaths over two weeks. But the majority of deaths have been vulnerable people in nursing homes or congregate living facilities, she said.
Vaishampayan said the county agency won’t rubber stamp the school district waiver applications. The plans will be reviewed for compliance with state guidelines. She expects the review will take a week and then state health officials will have three days to look at the proposals.
The timeline puts interested school districts on a path to possibly reopen elementary classrooms in early September. A few private schools already have completed applications on file with the county, Vaishampayan said.
Withrow said he’s in favor of elementary schools opening as soon as possible, followed by high schools and junior high campuses.
“We need to get schools back open or at least get it in the hands of school boards and parents to make that decision,” Withrow said Thursday. “The damage to keeping these kids at home is much greater than the damage from the virus.”
Stephanie Poulson of Modesto said she has mixed feelings about elementary students returning to class. “I want my child to move on in school but I also want it to be safe for the teachers,” said Poulson, who also has older children in Modesto schools. “I feel it’s too early for the teachers. They are at higher risk than the students.”
Vaishampayan said the waiver process for school districts includes a requirement for surveillance testing of staff. As for contact tracing, the schools will be expected to help public health staff identify the classmates of any student who tests positive for coronavirus, she explained.
County supervisors are expected to get an update on the coronavirus infection rate and what it means for schools at their meeting Tuesday.
This story was originally published August 21, 2020 at 7:21 AM.
