The Modesto area has gone 35 days without rain. A change is in the air
A storm expected Tuesday could bring Modesto’s first rain since Feb. 19.
The National Weather Service said rain is likely by that evening, with a chance earlier in the day. The storm also could boost snow in the central Sierra Nevada watershed.
The forecast does not yet say how much rain or snow may drop. It does see a break, finally, from the above-average temperatures of recent weeks.
The snowpack has lagged in most of California’s mountainous areas in 2026, but reservoir storage from recent wetter years has helped.
The Modesto and Turlock irrigation districts have adequate deliveries from the Tuolumne River. The same goes for the Oakdale and South San Joaquin irrigation districts on the Stanislaus River.
The federal Central Valley Project is supplying 100% of the contracted volume to senior rights holders on the San Joaquin River. Others are getting only 20%, due in part to fish protections in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
The state gets most of its storms from November through March. The runoff into reservoirs sustains farmers and home gardeners through seven mostly dry and warm months.
MID has recorded 9.83 inches of rain at its downtown offices so far this storm season. Its historical average to this point is 10.53 inches. A full year averages 12.16 inches.
The last measurable rain was 0.32 inches on Feb. 19. If the forecast for Tuesday comes true, it will have been 40 days and 40 nights without a storm.
Modesto has gone 11 straight days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees, according to MID. The peak was 90 degrees on March 18. This time of year typically is in the middle to upper 60s.
The Weather Service forecasts a high of 78 on Thursday, March 26. It will get as warm as 88 on Sunday before dropping to 66 with next Tuesday’s storm.
The Merced Irrigation District has no restrictions on its 2026 supplies. It serves farmers just south of TID.
“Just when we think the weather has settled, it keeps us guessing!” Merced County Office of Emergency Services said in a Facebook post Tuesday.
