Flood threat eases some, but next storm will send more runoff to Stanislaus County
Rivers stayed within their banks on a mostly sunny Monday in Stanislaus County, but yet another storm could raise the flood threat.
The National Weather Service forecast 1 to 2 inches of rain in Modesto from Monday evening through Wednesday. Up to 48 inches of snow could fall in the central Sierra Nevada, the main watershed for the county.
It will be a windy storm once again, with gusts up to 45 mph in Modesto.
Thursday looks to be sunny, followed by a chance of more storms at least into Sunday.
As of 8 a.m. Monday, the Tuolumne River was at 51.3 feet above sea level as measured at the Ninth Street Bridge by the California Department of Water Resources. It is projected to go about half a foot over its flood stage of 55 feet between Wednesday evening and Friday morning.
Most of the Tuolumne channel is farm and park land, but the river is already too dangerous for people to approach. Several parks along it are closed.
Two trailer parks right along the Tuolumne near Ninth Street are under evacuation precaution. The Riverdale area west of Carpenter Road is under an evacuation warning that could become an order.
Don Pedro Reservoir has enough unused capacity to prevent widespread flooding on the Tuolumne. Its managers said they are releasing plenty of water to prepare for the spring snowmelt, but in a way that does not do damage downstream.
The wild card is Dry Creek, which enters the Tuolumne in Modesto but has no dam on it. A creek height of 85 feet usually prompts an evacuation order. DWR projects that it will peak at 83.4 feet Wednesday morning.
Along the San Joaquin River, the county Office of Emergency Services has issued an evacuation warning for rural Patterson and the Grayson area. It applies to residents and businesses on the east side of Cox Road and Elm Avenue from Grayson Road south to Crows Landing Road.
“Those in the affected area should prepare now to leave at a moment’s notice if the situation becomes worse,” the alert said.
For those leaving, two shelters are available: The Salvation Army Red Shield Community Center, 1649 Las Vegas St. in Modesto, and the Stanislaus County Fairground, 900 N. Broadway in Turlock.
This story was originally published March 13, 2023 at 12:21 PM.
