Update: Forecast shows 5 inches of rain could fall in Modesto area through next Tuesday
An updated forecast shows up to 5 inches of rain in the Modesto area over the seven days ending Tuesday, March 14, and 100-plus inches of snow in its watershed.
The National Weather Service had estimated 1 to 2 inches through the weekend, plus an unknown amount the following two days. The forecast is now for 2 to 3 inches through the weekend and 1 to 2 inches next Monday and Tuesday.
Sonora could get up to 7.5 inches over the weekend and an additional 4 inches Monday and Tuesday. It is in the foothill portion of the Sierra Nevada watershed.
The Weather Service also raised the flood alert status for parts of Stanislaus County in Wednesday’s update. The entire county had been in the “slight” category Tuesday. The risk is now “moderate” on the West Side and in a narrow band from Valley Home to La Grange.
No part of Northern California has a “high” flood hazard this week, thanks to ample reservoir space and a multiple-week break from the January storms. Residents nonetheless should prepare for backed-up storm drains and other effects.
The Weather Service is forecasting up to 0.1 inches of Modesto rain from a smaller system Wednesday, March 8. It also will bring light snow to the Sierra.
Thursday through Sunday could bring 2 to 3 inches of Modesto rain and 80 to 100 inches of snow high in the mountains. Another 36 inches of snow could fall Monday and Tuesday, as measured at highway passes that are closed for the winter.
The central Sierra snowpack is at 196% of the historical average for March 8, the California Department of Water Resources said. That is about the same pace as the record set in 1983, which ended up at 230% thanks to storms in April and May.
A total of 15.09 inches of rain has collected in the downtown gauge of the Modesto Irrigation District since the water year began July 1. MID had tallied 19.92 inches by this date in 1983, on the way to a record 26.01 inches.
Snow is much more crucial than rain for this and other water suppliers in the Northern San Joaquin Valley. They expect to ease back on restrictions from the past three years of drought.
This story was originally published March 7, 2023 at 5:00 PM.
