More heavy rain is expected for Stanislaus County this weekend. When will it end?
The Northern San Joaquin Valley was looking forward to a dry-out day Thursday before a series of storms continues this weekend.
The Modesto area was expecting a moderate amount of rain Wednesday — a residual to storms that pounded California this week.
An evacuation order was focused on an area bordering the San Joaquin River near Newman in southwest Stanislaus County.
As of Wednesday, four people were using an evacuation shelter at Yolo Middle School in Newman. In Modesto, no one was staying at the evacuation shelter at the Salvation Army Red Shield center, 1649 Las Vegas St.
Authorities were monitoring Dry Creek and the Tuolumne River in Modesto, which was eight feet below the 55-foot “minor” flood stage Wednesday morning.
Dry Creek was flowing about 18 inches below the peak level for the waterway. “It is not currently flooding, but we are continuing to monitor (Dry Creek) and closely watching the upcoming storm weather,” Sonya Severo, a county emergency services spokesperson, said via email.
Wednesday, the Dry Creek evacuation warning issued this week was lowered to an advisory.
Dry Creek is expected to continue a pattern of surges, or up and down flows, with the additional storms moving in this weekend and Monday and Tuesday of next week. The creek could rise again to the peak 80-foot level Sunday, but major flooding is not anticipated, an emergency response official said.
Residents near the creek were advised to keep watching the weather and take necessary action if there is flooding in their neighborhood.
Even with the additional storms, the Don Pedro Reservoir dam should be able to control a safe level of flows in the Tuolumne River.
“Turlock Irrigation District is telling us they have ample room in Don Pedro Reservoir,” said Deputy Fire Chief Darin Jesberg of the Modesto Fire Department, who’s a spokesman for the Central Valley Incident Management Team. “They are releasing water gradually from Don Pedro into the Tuolumne River.”
The San Joaquin River near Newman was at 60.5 feet Wednesday morning, almost nine feet below the official flood level. But part of the concern for the San Joaquin River are flows from the Merced River watershed, which enter the San Joaquin near the county line.
Portions of Merced County were under evacuation orders due to flooding.
Stanislaus County officials released a list of 20 road closures caused by recent storms. Caltrans said that Highway 33, on the west side of the county, is open for traffic after flooding had closed the highway in multiple locations.
Biden declares an emergency
The rainstorms this week pushed the season total to 10.68 inches for Modesto. The Modesto area this weekend could surpass the 12.12-inch annual historical average for the season, which runs from July to June.
President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration Monday for storm-ravaged California, with the declaration including Stanislaus County.
After a break in the stormy weather Thursday, there’s a 60% to 80% chance of rain Friday and Friday night in Modesto, as a prelude to potent storms in the forecast.
Heavy rain is expected Saturday, with 1 to 2 inches possible. Another system moving in later Sunday will lead to a bigger event Monday, the National Weather Service said. An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible Monday and Tuesday.
The rain hitting saturated ground could result in more localized flooding and dangerous roads across Stanislaus County.
“These storms are not quite as intense, but we should see periods of heavy rain Saturday and then again on Monday,” said Cory Miller, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
Miller said at least one more storm is likely next week before a break in the atmospheric river conditions that have plagued California in January. “Generally, things are looking quieter after that,” Miller said. “We will see if that holds. It does look like we might get a break.”
The Central Valley Incident Management Team advised people to avoid driving on flooded streets and roads. A social media post said standing water may conceal washed-out roads and debris that can disable a vehicle.
County residents should also watch for fallen trees or large branches on roadways.
If you can’t avoid driving through standing water, move to the middle of the road and drive slowly. “Never drive into water of unknown depth,” the social media post said. “Six inches of water is enough to cause you to lose control of your vehicle and could cause your vehicle to stall.”
The Stanislaus County Office of Emergency Services is posting Facebook updates on the storms and flooding. People may call an evacuation inquiry line at 209-552-3880. For the latest road conditions in the region, go to https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov.
This story was originally published January 11, 2023 at 1:12 PM.
