Storm roundup UPDATE: Evacuation order, warning issued in San Joaquin River area of Newman
Update: Shortly before 7 p.m. Tuesday, Stanislaus County announced on social media an evacuation order for the Newman area of the San Joaquin River and east of River Road.
For the same stretch of the river but west of River Road, an evacuation warning was issued.
Residents under the evacuation order were urged to leave the area safely and to call 209-552-3880 for evacuation information. Those in the warning area were told in the post, “Please be prepared for evacuation should it become necessary.”
Original story: Tuesday brought a tornado alert to the mix of wet, windy conditions in and near Stanislaus County.
Residents got a 3:44 a.m. smartphone alert from the National Weather Service about a possible twister until 4:15 a.m. in a band from roughly Ceres to Riverbank. As of noon, no tornado damage had been reported, and in a video posted on social media in the noon hour, Sheriff Jeff Dirkse said there was no twister in the county.
Such events are rare in the county, but Denair had one in 2015 that did nearly $500,000 in damage to 21 homes.
The county continues to deal with flooding on Orestimba Creek on the West Side. On Monday, 54 residents of the San Luis skilled nursing facility in Newman were evacuated to other care homes.
In Modesto, police officers notified residents near Dry Creek about flooding that could peak at 11 a.m. Wednesday. The creek corridor is mostly park and farmland, with numerous homes atop bluffs.
The Tuolumne River is not expected to top its banks, but it nonetheless will reach a volume unsafe for people standing next to it. Dry Creek joins it just east of downtown. The city has closed the linear parks along both the creek and river.
Dirkse declared a local emergency Monday afternoon and urged residents to avoid areas at risk of flooding. This includes many roads with inadequate drainage. The Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday morning to confirm the local emergency.
In his video update Tuesday afternoon on the state of emergency, the sheriff said, “We expect most of our waterways to peak lower than originally anticipated, with the exception of the San Joaquin River that is coming up as a possible concern to hit the flood stage. We are monitoring that, so if you live in the low-lying areas around the San Joaquin River, please pay attention. We are going to be trying to contact you if we think an evacuation is necessary.” He asked those residents to prepare to leave if needed.
The Weather Service forecast up to 0.25 inches of rain in Modesto on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some could come with thunder. Winds could gust to 35 miles per hour. Up to 18 inches of snow could fall in the Sierra Nevada watershed.
The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday calls for up to 0.25 inches of rain in Modesto and 6 inches of snow. Saturday through Monday could bring up to 2 inches of rain in Modesto and 4 feet of snow.
The central Sierra snowpack was 214% of average as of Tuesday, the California Department of Water Resources said. Most of it tends to fall from November through March.
Widespread flooding is unlikely because of the large amount of unused space in foothill reservoirs. Don Pedro on the Tuolumne was at 67% of capacity Tuesday, DWR said. New Melones on the Stanislaus River was at 33%.
Reservoir managers have a balancing act: They hope to build back storage after three straight dry years. They also have to release water now to ensure enough space for snowmelt in spring. And those releases ideally are not so large that they add to current flooding.
Dry Creek and Orestimba Creek have no dams to moderate the flows. Officials monitor their watersheds for possible flooding.
As of noon Tuesday, the Modesto Irrigation District has collected 10.63 inches of rain at its downtown headquarters since the July 1 start of the water year. An average year is 12.12 inches. Early Tuesday afternoon’s total of 0.33 inches included 0.28 inches from a thunderstorm between 3 and 4 a.m., roughly the tornado alert time.
Shortly before the warning, at 3:25 a.m., the Weather Service office in Sacramento posted on social media that “a line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rain, small hail and strong wind will move through the Sacramento, Stockton and Modesto areas shortly. Roadway flooding is likely!”
This all came several hours after the California Highway Patrol’s Modesto office posted on social media at about 7:15 p.m. Monday, “ONE LONG DAY…& TOMORROW: It is safe to say the west side of Stanislaus County was slammed today with unprecedented flooding. The CHP Modesto could not thank enough the efforts from Caltrans, District 10, Stanislaus County Sheriff’s Office, West Stanislaus County Fire Protection District, Patterson Police Services and Stanislaus County Roads. We understand the frustration road closures bring. Your patience during this time is greatly appreciated. Please download the Caltrans Quick Maps app for the latest closures on our state highways. Plan ahead and alter your daily commute to arrive at you destination in a safe manner.”
This story was originally published January 10, 2023 at 12:47 PM.
