Modesto plans to grow. But where to place housing and industry are tougher decisions
The city of Modesto appears determined to grow and expand its economic base with the 2050 General Plan update.
Officials are running into familiar tensions in a city that was growing fast in the 1990s but also has tried to control development with sewer extension advisory votes. A Stanislaus County anti-sprawl initiative was approved by 68% of voters in 2008.
The city unveiled land use options at workshops in December, noting that Modesto has not grown for years while other cities in Stanislaus County have expanded and captured economic opportunities.
The city also hears public appeals for more housing to relieve a shortage and for high-paying skilled jobs.
City staff has been gathering comments on three land use alternatives, including a “competitive” or aggressive plan, a moderate plan and a strategy for minimal growth. The general plan update will guide the city’s development through 2050.
Notably, this general plan overhaul will have sections on climate change and environmental justice, and may be influenced by the state’s urgency to add housing.
Councilmember Nick Bavaro said he wants to review more information before committing to any option. He said his focus is on a general plan with designations for industrial and commercial uses that will attract industries and well-paying jobs. The plan also should serve to increase the city’s residential inventory, he said.
“If Modesto does not grow, Riverbank, Patterson and other communities surrounding Modesto will pick up the slack,” Bavaro said. “I have not committed to any final map yet. Staff are still listening to the public.”
The growth options have created contention by planning residential development north of Kiernan Avenue either partly or all the way to Ladd Road.
The Vote for Farmland group has said housing subdivisions north of Kiernan would destroy highly productive farmland and cover an important groundwater recharge area. The group has threatened a ballot measure to make Kiernan the northern city limit.
The city will give a presentation on the land use alternatives at a meeting in Salida at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 18, in the Salida Library community room. City staff has said the general plan update won’t change the county-approved Salida Community Plan, which is a blueprint for 3,400 acres of industrial, commercial and residential development along Kiernan between Sisk and Dale roads.
Industrial corridor proposed along Highway 132 bypass
The growth options also have revived proposals for development in the so-called Beckwith Triangle, including regional commercial and a business park across Highway 99 from Vintage Faire Mall.
Also piquing people’s curiosity is a map showing industrial and business center development along the Highway 132 bypass corridor as far as Hart Road. The industrial area would emerge between Maze Boulevard and Woodland Avenue.
The city’s land use proposals brought 125 residents of Wood Colony to a meeting last month at Hart-Ransom School, which was reminiscent of Wood Colony’s strong opposition to proposed city expansion in 2015.
County Supervisor Terry Withrow, who has pushed for completing the 132 bypass, said he doesn’t know where the concept for a business park corridor came from and does not support it.
Withrow said the 132 bypass is intended to move goods in and out of Modesto more smoothly. The supervisor said he didn’t know of any industries or businesses that want to locate operations in that area.
“We don’t want to encourage development out there,” Withrow said. “I think (the city) is drawing a map and seeing what they can get.”
Withrow added there is no interchange where Dakota Avenue meets the bypass route, which would be essential for developing that area. “The first interchange will be at Hart Road and that is years out before that will happen,” he said.
Councilman Chris Ricci said he wasn’t aware of specific ideas for business parks proposed along Highway 132. “What the city is aware of is we need more businesses to develop and so the city is making suggestions,” Ricci said. “It does not mean people are lined up for that area.”
Ricci said the city’s goal is to maintain the identity of Wood Colony as an agricultural community. City staff has noted that the land use proposals do not touch the 1,760-acre Wood Colony settlement boundaries that date to 1870.
Wood Colony community leaders are concerned that any development, whether in the Beckwith Triangle or along Highway 132, would induce more development in the scenic area west of Modesto. Maze Boulevard, or Highway 132, is the southern limit of the boundaries drawn for the Wood Colony Municipal Advisory Council.
“That whole area is such a lightning rod for controversy, my take is we need to be very careful there,” Ricci said.
Bavaro said, “I don’t hear rumblings that the council wants to pave over Wood Colony.”
City confronts the housing shortage
Based on what’s happened in the last 20 years, growth is going to occur, Ricci said. Modesto’s lack of growth has meant only that other cities expanded.
Modesto leaders are aware of the need for more housing opportunities for everyone from young families to people struggling with rental costs.
“I think housing costs are one of the biggest reasons that people struggle economically,” Ricci said, adding that the expense contributes to the homelessness epidemic. “One of the best ways to address that is by increasing supply. We need all types of housing.”
Even some anti-sprawl advocates have said they’re OK with housing development on the eastern fringe of Modesto, where farmland is less productive. The city’s growth options plan some residential areas north of Briggsmore Avenue, east of Claus Road.
Bavaro, describing his ideology as pro-business, pro-growth and pro-environment, said he could lean toward residential development on the east side of Modesto — given the option. He said his pro-environment position refers to clean water and air and good sustainable businesses that help the economy.
The climate change section of the general plan update is necessary, Bavaro said. “People talk about more rail, more bike and walking paths. When talking about growth, in that same conversation you need to talk about the environment.”
The city’s competitive option would add 13,800 acres for potential growth and increase land designated for residential by 16%, residential and commercial mixed use by 21%, regional commercial by 84%, business centers by 122% and industrial by 46%.
The more moderate option, adding 12,380 acres, would increase residential by 21%, mixed use by 49%, regional commercial by 55%, business centers by 33% and industrial by 20%. The minimal growth option, adding 9,330 acres, would increase acreage for residential by 17%, mixed use by 23% and regional commercial by 67%, with no net increase for business centers or industrial uses.
The city has proposed areas for business operations and employment on the south side of Kiernan for some time, and the new options designate business centers on the east side of McHenry Avenue, north of Kiernan.
This story was originally published February 12, 2026 at 6:00 AM.
