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Getting back to normal? Stanislaus County sees a surge in coronavirus infections

Stanislaus County has trailed behind other areas marred by the coronavirus, and now infections are increasing in the county and its nine cities.

In the past week, county public health reported 68 new cases of people sickened by COVID-19, after the county caseload had remained under 100 for a month.

Since a shortage of supplies limits testing to those with worsening symptoms, it means 24 more people in Modesto wrestling with the dangerous respiratory illness and capable of spreading it to others. Ceres and Turlock had 10 and 8 new cases, respectively, and the unincorporated area had 9.

Additional cases were reported in Patterson, Riverbank and Newman. Two more deaths were announced Tuesday, bringing the total to four.

Nine more people were hospitalized at local medical centers, which have managed to handle the influx since the first cases emerged March 11.

The county’s caseload rose from 95, as of April 8, to 163 on Tuesday, as political leaders across California and the nation started talking about possibilities of getting back to normal. The case total jumped to 177 on Wednesday.

“It is very clear we are not out of the woods yet,” sheriff Sgt. Tom Letras said in an online statement this week.

Letras said the Sheriff’s Department received complaints about family gatherings held on Easter Sunday, which heighten the potential for a spike in the contagious illness.

The COVID-19 illness is feared because even a normal case may create a harrowing bout with body-soaking fevers, shortness of breath and cough, severe muscle aches and exhaustion. About 20 percent of people who test positive require hospitalization. The death rate is 1 percent.

Numbers are flattening in California

With a flattening of numbers in other areas of the state, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday laid out a framework for relaxing stay-at-home orders and business closures but didn’t have a time estimate for the reopening process. The governor could have a timetable on loosening orders in two weeks if he sees a decline in hospitalizations and patients in intensive care units.

Local officials also will watch the case numbers and hospitalizations before making plans for lifting restrictions. The county has planned for orders to remain in place through May 31.

Jody Hayes, county chief executive officer, said coronavirus took hold later in Stanislaus County than outbreaks in Sacramento and the Bay Area.

“We will be monitoring hospitals for a few weeks and only after that would we work with the state to figure out what the next phase is for Stanislaus County,” Hayes said after watching the governor’s update.

Governor’s framework for lifting orders

The governor’s framework for lifting stay-home orders calls for expanded testing and better tracking and isolation of infected individuals, protection of seniors and people with health conditions, and plans for dealing with hospital surges if new infections erupt.

Newsom will expect to see practices for safe distancing in businesses and schools and the ability to reinstate controls if needed until therapeutic drugs and a coronavirus vaccine is available in 12 to 18 months. He said county public health offices will play a key role in the next phase.

County Supervisor Vito Chiesa said he appreciated the principles laid out by Newsom for lifting the statewide orders. Chiesa agreed an exact timeline isn’t possible yet.

“Everything he said is common sense,” Chiesa said. “We definitely have to talk about how we get out of this because the economy is struggling and businesses are suffering.”

Erin Bugarin, who owns a hair salon at the DoubleTree Hotel in downtown Modesto, was hoping the epidemic would pass so her business can reopen.

She said beauty salons will need to adopt precautions such as gloves and goggles for stylists and fewer customers seated in the waiting area. It will take awhile for the return of normal business practices.

“We are gearing up just like the hospitals,” Bugarin said. “We need business to continue and I have to protect my customers and employees.”

The growing caseload in Stanislaus County seems to follow the pattern of neighboring San Joaquin County. In a weekly update, the San Joaquin public health department said the county has averaged 11 new coronavirus cases each day since March 20. The total number jumped from 253 on Friday to 364 on Wednesday, including 17 deaths.

The health department said COVID-19 illness is widespread in San Joaquin County; the true numbers of people infected are not known due to lack of testing.

This story was originally published April 15, 2020 at 5:10 PM.

Ken Carlson
The Modesto Bee
Ken Carlson covers county government and health care for The Modesto Bee. His coverage of public health, medicine, consumer health issues and the business of health care has appeared in The Bee for 15 years.
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