When will the COVID-19 patient surge hit Stanislaus hospitals? County looks for a model
An often-cited research institute is predicting a peak in California’s coronavirus outbreak next week. But Stanislaus County, which hasn’t followed the trend of coronavirus hot spots in the state, is trying to figure when its hospitals will see a surge in COVID-19 patients.
County officials provided a glimpse of modeling suggesting that stay-home orders and social distancing has prevented a steep rise in hospitalizations that would have inundated hospitals by the end of April. The same model assuming 40 percent public compliance with social distancing says, however, that hospitals could still be overwhelmed with patients struggling to breath in mid-June.
County leaders said the projections based on strict mathematical models are not reliable, so they continue to look for a good model to support patient-surge planning.
Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, county health officer, said the scary projection for mid-June is based on a University of Pennsylvania formula, or the “Penn” model, which does not factor in the potential seasonality of coronavirus and the buildup of immunity in the local population.
“It assumes everyone continues to be susceptible to (the virus),” Vaishampayan said. According to the theory of seasonality, the novel virus that appeared in China in late December could fade out with the Central Valley’s warm-up in late spring and reappear next winter, triggering another round of mask-wearing and social distancing.
Since the county’s first two cases of coronavirus were reported a month ago (March 11), fewer than 100 residents have tested positive, with no deaths, and 32 people have been hospitalized. Health officials believe the actual number of infections is higher than the positive tests.
County estimates 40 percent compliance
Vaishampayan said during an online forum Wednesday the disease count suggests the county is getting 40 percent compliance with efforts to slow the outbreak. She said the next two weeks could show if the behavior of residents has flattened the curve.
County Chief Executive Officer Jody Hayes said the county is leaning toward an often-cited University of Washington projection model, though it’s not designed to serve the county’s purposes.
The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Washington came out with lower coronavirus estimates this week for the nation, predicting a total U.S. death toll of 60,400 by Aug. 4 and a peak in daily fatalities this weekend.
The institute projected the daily number of deaths in California will peak April 15, with the total death toll reaching 1,600 by early August. The demand for hospital resources in California will peak at 4,900 beds early next week, the institute said.
Hayes said in a video Wednesday there’s still a possibility COVID-19 patients could exceed the total 1,200-bed capacity at Memorial Medical Center, Doctors Medical Center, Kaiser Modesto Medical Center, Emanuel Medial Center in Turlock and Oak Valley Hospital in Oakdale. Referring to other models developed by Johns Hopkins University and Stanford University, the county hopes to have a more definite model for surge projections in a week, Hayes said.
Plan could reactivate former county hospital
So far, the county’s surge plan designates the former county hospital facilities on Scenic Drive as a “surge location” for 110 patients. The county needs to equip the rooms with beds and work out staffing details and integration of care with hospitals.
A second surge facility could consist of an outdoor area using tents, Hayes said, though he did not disclose a location.
As of Tuesday, hospitals in Stanislaus County were using 43 percent of their beds, partly in preparation for the pandemic, and had 690 beds available, according to county numbers. Patient volume is down at some hospitals because the coronavirus-related social distancing and stay-at-home orders have tamped down influenza during the final weeks of the 2019-20 flu season, a county spokesman said.
About 80 percent of the hospitals’ 150 intensive care beds were in use and 30 ICU beds were available. The county said 30 percent of the 191 ventilators at hospitals were being used, leaving 134 ventilators available for COVID-19 patients.
Patients with serious cases of the COVID-19 respiratory illness on average spend seven days in the hospital, Vaishampayan said. The average is 10 days for those requiring intensive care.
Vaishamayan said the biggest factor in containing the outbreak is residents staying home and not getting sick. People are encouraged to wash hands frequently, not touch their faces and keep 6 feet away from others if they need to buy groceries or go the drugstore.
“The more we get the community to do social distancing the less hospital beds we will need,” Vaishampayan said.
This story was originally published April 9, 2020 at 9:25 AM.
