Stanislaus stays on track for economic recovery despite seasonal dip in employment
Unemployment in Stanislaus County increased by 0.8% in June, following a statewide trend of incremental recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The county’s June unemployment rate came in at 8.8%, up from 8% in May, according to data released by California’s Employment Development Department. County-level data is not seasonally adjusted.
Unemployment remained steady at 7.7% at the state level, with no change from May’s numbers. Nationally, the jobless rate increased to 5.9%, up from 5.8% the month before, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In June 2020, Stanislaus saw an unemployment rate of 13.7%, while California’s clocked in at 14.1%.
The slight dip in unemployment in the summer months can be attributed to seasonal employment fluctuations, said Gökçe Soydemir, the Foster Farms endowed professor of business economics at California State University, Stanislaus, in an email.
“This is a seasonal phenomena that we see every year,” he said in the email. “Employment numbers begin to increase with the month of March throughout July, then there is a temporary dip followed by an increase in August and September months then a decline in the late fall and winter months.”
Much of this fluctuation can be attributed to seasonal employment, especially in agriculture, which makes up a large portion of the county’s economy. In June, Stanislaus saw job losses in both farming and government jobs, as well as education and health services. Statewide, most industries continued to gain jobs, with losses concentrated mainly in the financial sector and construction.
Soydemir said that the strong economic recovery from the pandemic helps explain why the seasonal increase in unemployment came earlier this year. But the increase is “slight,” he said, and “therefore is not alarming at this stage.”
Economists predict long-term recovery from the effects of the pandemic to happen in late 2021 and early 2022.
“The recovery so far, appears to be on track,” Soydemir said.
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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