Stanislaus unemployment is down as recovery continues. How will the next months unfold?
Unemployment in Stanislaus County dropped 0.6% in May, following a statewide trend of incremental recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The county’s May unemployment rate came in at 8%, down from 8.6% in April, according to data released by California’s Employment Development Department. County-level data is not seasonally adjusted.
Unemployment dropped to 7.9% at the state level, marking a slight change from April’s 8%. California’s unadjusted employment numbers show the same 0.6% decline as Stanislaus County. Nationally, the jobless rate declined to 5.8%, up from 6.1% the month before, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This decline is consistent with economists’ prediction of more rapid recovery in the second half of 2021, and more permanent recovery in 2022.
Jeff Michael, director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said Stanislaus County is moving “in tandem” with the state in its recovery, and the May numbers are influenced by seasonal hiring, which contributes to a large chunk of the county’s economy.
Additionally, he said, the county’s job growth numbers were a bit slower compared to other regions across California.
“You don’t have Disneyland reopening and things of that nature,” he said, “so there’s a couple of places that are big tourist areas ... that saw big huge surges and hiring last month as their major attractions are reopening.”
Stanislaus County, by contrast, is following a longer-term recovery path.
The region struggled with higher-than-average unemployment rates even pre-pandemic, Michael added, so there isn’t as much net job loss to contend with as in areas that experienced massive declines and rely more heavily on those industries the pandemic impacted the most, like tourism and hospitality.
Still, he said, recovery in Stanislaus is still ongoing and there are lots of jobs to fill.
“In the past couple of months we’ve been adding just over 100,000 jobs (each month statewide),” he said. “You start to wonder if that’s about the maximum that can be hired in any given month. But the demand is there, the employers are looking for workers and people are returning to work. It just takes longer to restart a business than to close one.”
California took another step forward in its road to recovery Tuesday, when Gov. Gavin Newsom largely lifted statewide mask mandates and capacity restrictions.
While Michael said the lifting of restrictions is likely to usher in more growth, it was the governor’s announcement back in April of the June 15 reopening date that might have proven more impactful.
“That was the important thing,” he said, “to see (state leaders) out sticking their reputation on that and sending the signal to people and businesses that we would reopen and to get ready.”
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published June 19, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
