Delta COVID surge shows signs of slowing in Stanislaus County, health officials say
Spurred by the dominant delta variant, the COVID-19 surge in Stanislaus County is lasting longer than the wave of cases a year ago.
But county health officials said it appears to be slowing down.
Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, county health officer, told county supervisors Tuesday evening the high point was in mid-August when the daily case rate for the coronavirus was five times the “purple tier” threshold that formerly signaled widespread transmission in California.
“We have come down but it has been slow,” Vaishampayan said in a presentation to the Board of Supervisors.
The daily case rate has declined from 53.5 per 100,000 population in early September to 38.1 per 100,000. Test positivity is 8.4 percent compared to 11.1 percent three weeks ago.
In the past two weeks, the number of hospitalized COVID patients in the county dropped off from 292 to 223, but intensive care units were still caring for 66 COVID-positive patients Tuesday, most of them on ventilators.
Gino Patrizio, chief executive officer of Memorial Medical Center in Modesto, told the board the hospital census of COVID-19 patients had fallen to 90 but shot back up to 110 the past week.
Memorial is running well above its normal admissions for this time of year and its emergency department has 20 to 25 percent higher volume, Patrizio said. Many are non-Covid patients who need medical attention for regular health issues.
Patrizio said he believes the surge is lasting a couple of weeks longer than the summer 2020 surge because of the virulence and contagiousness of the delta variant.
The hospital CEO noted that for every 5 or 6 coronavirus patients at Memorial, one is vaccinated. He said 19 of the 20 COVID patients “we are losing” don’t have vaccine protection. According to a county dashboard, 92 percent of COVID deaths in the county are people who were not fully vaccinated.
Patrizio expressed concern about a flattening of new vaccinations in Stanislaus County the last three or four weeks. The vaccines are the best protection against the disease and are essential for preventing another surge this winter, he said.
The county’s full vaccination rate against COVID-19 is about 53 percent among eligible residents age 12 and over. That is far less than the 64 percent nationwide and the 79 percent COVID immunization rate among eligible residents in the nine-county Bay Area, according to a New York Times tracker.
Vaishampayan said county public health is waiting for direction from federal and state agencies on administering booster shots. She said antibodies created by the vaccines decrease over six to 12 months and then stabilize at a level, raising questions about whether it’s enough to keep the virus in check.
Vaishampayan said there has been a small decrease in immunity against symptomatic illness among vaccinated people but no decrease in protection against hospitalization or death.
An FDA panel last week recommended a booster dose for adults 65 and older and those at high risk. An advisory committee with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is holding meetings on the issue Wednesday and Thursday. A group of experts for the western states also has to weigh in before COVID booster shots are offered in California, Vaishampayan said.
