A new COVID-19 surge? Stanislaus health officer doesn’t see how the state can avoid it
As Stanislaus County keeps making progress with coronavirus vaccinations and tamping down cases, its top health officer said Tuesday she doesn’t see how California and its counties will avoid a new surge of COVID-19 illness.
California remains on a path of fully reopening its economy in mid-June and some experts believe that vaccinations and public precautions will lessen the impact of a new surge, if it does arrive.
County public health officer Dr. Julie Vaishampayan pointed to surges in the eastern United States and in Michigan, and said an increase in cases was making steady progress across the country.
On Thursday, Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington announced that state was showing signs of a new surge, with rising hospitalizations. According to an ABC News report, Washington has seen a 32 percent increase in positive tests for coronavirus variants and the virus was infecting more young people.
Vaishampayan said Oregon was “turning red” on maps charting the pandemic. She said Stanislaus County’s health agency is preparing to measure an increase in new cases.
“I don’t see why it would skip California,” Vaishampayan said during a weekly presentation to the county Board of Supervisors. “I don’t know why we would be spared.”
With California posting some of the lowest disease transmission data, and cases starting to decline in Michigan and other states in the Midwest, health experts have hoped a new West Coast surge will be less deadly than previous ones.
Stanislaus County had hoped to avoid a repeat of the spring and summer wave of COVID-19 last year that overwhelmed hospitals and hit hard in the food and agriculture workforces.
Vaishampayan said Stanislaus has a healthy rate of coronavirus vaccination on its side. She said from 5,000 to 6,000 doses are being administered per day largely because of health care providers. The county’s public vaccine clinics gave 8,231 shots last week, which is down from 11,709 the week of April 5-10.
According to state data, more than 318,000 doses have been administered in Stanislaus County and 125,345 have been fully vaccinated, or 22 percent of the total county population. About 203,000 county residents have received at least one dose.
Vaccines are allowed for anyone age 16 and older. County data presented to supervisors showed that almost half of eligible residents have received at least one dose of vaccine: 29 percent are fully vaccinated and another 19 percent are partially vaccinated.
After coronavirus vaccines became available early this year, the county focused attention on inoculating employees in the food and agriculture sectors. Those industries are said to be better prepared this time with safety measures against COVID-19.
Stanislaus has lately posted low test positivity rates and transmission around 50 new cases per day. A county online dashboard reported a blip of 189 cases Monday, with three deaths. Hospitalizations climbed to 102 on Tuesday, up from 78 two weeks ago.
But no one claimed those numbers were signs of a new surge. The California Department of Public Health reported 1,445 new cases Tuesday and five deaths statewide. The state has a positivity rate of 1.2 percent.
Stanislaus had the lowest transmission data in months in a state update Tuesday that determines the level of coronavirus regulations for the county. The daily case rate was 9.3 per 100,000 and test positivity was 4 percent for the entire county and 3.9 in underserved neighborhoods.
The county has been in the state’s red tier for five weeks, signaling “substantial” spread of COVID-19.
Some experts fear that coronavirus variants will drive the next wave of cases. Vaishampayan said 11 cases of the “UK” variant have been confirmed in this county along with three cases tied to the South African variant. Both of those variants are believed to be significantly more contagious but it’s generally understood the vaccines are effective against them.
County plans use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine
County staff did not discuss targeted vaccination efforts that are expected to replace the mass vaccination clinics scheduled for phaseout in the second half of May.
Vaishampayan said the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will be one of the county’s tools, along with Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, now that the federal government has released a temporary pause on using the single-dose vaccine. Health experts identified 15 cases of rare blood clots in women injected with Johnson & Johnson among the 8 million doses of J&J administered in the U.S. Most were women younger than 50 years old.
Vaishampayan said the blood-clot rate is two in a million doses. People face a higher risk of getting blood clots from COVID-19 disease, she said.
This story was originally published April 27, 2021 at 12:23 PM.
