Here’s what we must do for Stanislaus to advance to red COVID tier

We’re almost there, people.

Stanislaus is among 11 counties still stuck in California’s purple COVID cellar. But we’re on the cusp of qualifying for an upgrade to the less-restrictive red tier — if and only if our virus numbers next week stay about where they are right now.

Some will be tempted to start celebrating. If that includes anything like prepandemic parties, please don’t.

This is no time to let our guard down. In fact it’s never been more important to be careful — to wear masks, avoid gathering and get vaccinated if we’re eligible.

We all want the same payoff. We long to reopen junior high and high school campuses, to worship at greater capacity, to work out in fitness clubs, to see movies in a real theater — all of which can happen if we don’t blow it this week.

We’re bookended by those who have. To our north, San Joaquin County last week celebrated red-status numbers indicating they could slide into red if their numbers this week stayed down — a county must have two consecutive weeks of decent data for an upgrade. But their numbers suddenly shot into purple territory, forcing them to start over with the data game. How devastating.

Let’s learn from San Joaquin’s mistake and vow not to let it happen here.

To our south, Merced leads the state’s 58 counties for new cases, and by “leads” we mean worst in the state. No county wants that distinction.

Stanislaus is on a path less taken. Although our high case rate keeps us among the 11 purple cellar dwellers this week, our numbers in two other metrics — equity, or decent numbers in underserved neighborhoods, and test positivity — are good enough for orange status, which is even better than red. Scoring well in those two metrics is enough to drag us from purple into red overall, if we hold steady this week.

Success is not a given. Supervisors learned at a meeting late Tuesday that Stanislaus COVID hospitalizations had increased six days in a row, and that case rates in the Oakdale area are declining slower than other places. Both are worrisome. We are not out of the woods yet.

Stanislaus COVID status isn’t state’s fault

This close to the finish line, it’s puzzling why Stanislaus supervisors and our public health officer felt the need Tuesday to fire off a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom asking for preferential treatment in reopening grades 7 through 12. They get some credit for style points because the letter is far less attacking than the aggressive rhetoric we repeatedly heard from supervisors before recent turnover switched out three of the five-member panel. Still, the letter will not move us one inch closer to reopening schools.

We’re nearing that milestone, again, because of lower positivity and progress in poor neighborhoods.

Very few have qualified to advance in this manner, on a technicality. We’re grateful, but we can’t afford to be cocky or careless. We are on the verge of red by the skin of our teeth, and an unfortunate bump in numbers could keep us, battered and bruised, in purple.

So let’s stay the course. Let’s be vigilant, smart and unselfish.

We’re almost there.

This story was originally published March 16, 2021 at 5:02 PM.