Stanislaus County COVID-19 cases leveling. Here’s a look at when we may hit red tier
Stanislaus County is close to meeting the state requirements for relaxed coronavirus restrictions on restaurants and authorization to reopen schools for students in 7th through 12th grades.
But close isn’t good enough. And it looks like the county may or may not get its COVID-19 case numbers to meet the threshold for moving from purple tier restrictions to the red tier and its easier rules.
When the state met a goal of 2 million vaccination doses in underserved communities Friday, which made it easier to enter the red tier, the 7-day case rate in Stanislaus did not meet the new standard of 10 per 100,000 population.
Thirteen of California’s counties, including Tuolumne and hard hit Los Angeles, shifted from purple to red Friday and another 13 counties including San Joaquin and Sacramento are expected to leave the purple tier for red with the weekly update Tuesday, based on current data and projections.
By Tuesday, Stanislaus may be only one of eight counties to remain in the most restrictive purple tier.
A state update last week put the county’s case rate at 13.6 per 100,000, down from 15.6 the previous week. County officials were hopeful when the case rate declined from 25.5 to 16.1 between Feb. 19 and March 3, but the downward trend line flattened out. It ranged between 11.9 and 12.1 this past week.
The county reported 126 new cases Friday, which is going in the wrong direction. The new 10 per 100,000 threshold for the red tier equates to about 56 new cases per day.
Top county officials did not make any promises Friday to step up enforcement or try other case-reducing efforts to close the margin and qualify for red tier after 16 consecutive weeks in purple.
County could send letter to Gov. Newsom to make case
In an agenda item for their meeting Tuesday evening, county supervisors could approve a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom saying the state’s coronavirus metrics are delaying the return to in-person learning for middle school and high schoolers, which is an important issue for parents and students.
The county’s draft letter outlines the uncertainty about a further drop in the case rate.
“Our case rate has abruptly plateaued at a level that may take weeks to meet the state criteria for further opening,” says the letter signed by board chairman Vito Chiesa and county health officer Julie Vaishampayan.
The county’s proposed letter asks the state for immediate action to reprioritize school reopening for all ages in the California blueprint for safely lifting pandemic restrictions.
“We know that schools can operate safely, even in an environment of moderate to high community transmission of COVID-19,” the county’s letter says.
The draft letter states that the county’s test positivity rate meets the requirement for red tier and also the orange tier. The state’s coronavirus reopening plan has four tiers — purple, red, orange and yellow — representing disease transmission from widespread to minimal.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared a year ago, county authorities have said they won’t make enforcement of health orders a priority and today it’s not hard to find examples of noncompliance such as indoor restaurant diners or yoga studios.
County Chief Executive Officer Jody Hayes said Friday the county remains optimistic its case numbers will qualify for tier reassignment in the coming weeks.
“There is no question that the community plays a direct role in that outcome,” Hayes said in an email. “At this point, every case in the community matters and may be the difference between students returning to school.”
County health officials urge residents to wear masks, maintain social distance, wash their hands and get vaccinated if they are eligible.
Hayes did not say if the county will try additional efforts, such as enforcement, to reduce new cases. “We will have a more robust discussion on this during Tuesday’s (board of supervisors) meeting,” he wrote.
County officials said the declining case numbers have flattened out just above the new threshold for the red tier.
“The case rate has continued to decline, however, the rate of decline has slowed slightly in the past week, so it is important that people continue to practice COVID-19 prevention strategies,” said Robert Moser, a health educator for the county.
Moser said the case rate needs to meet the qualifying metrics for red tier for two consecutive weeks for the county to leave the purple tier restrictions behind. It means March 23 is the soonest the county can reach the red tier.
Aside from keeping high school and middle school students on remote learning, the purple tier prohibits restaurant dining and fitness center activity indoors.
School districts await change in tiers
Local school districts have plans for bringing high school and junior high students back for in-person instruction; for example, Modesto City Schools has set the date for March 29. But the state’s purple tier doesn’t allow those campuses to reopen.
“We are hoping the county can get there,” said Cindy Marks, a board member for Modesto City Schools.
Marks said the school district is trying to help by urging people to get tested for COVID-19 if they have been exposed to the virus or have symptoms.
State health officials have adjusted the county’s case rate when testing numbers are below the median in California and it could make a difference in meeting the threshold.
Marks said the county’s largest school district is obligated to follow the state’s reopening guidelines.
“It is state law that we cannot open until we get to the red zone in our county,” Marks said. “Unless they change the criteria we are beholden to them. …I believe distance learning has been detrimental for many of our students, so I hope we can open for grades 7 through 12 as soon as possible.”
Marks noted that MCS students in transitional kindergarten to sixth grade can increase class time to four days a week starting next week without a county tier change.
Viral transmission is low in schools
Chiesa, the county board chairman, said Thursday he expected supervisors would consider sending a letter to the state asking for flexibility. From local school boards to state leaders in Sacramento, there is broad agreement about opening schools this spring for higher grade levels, he said.
“They are going to let them play sports. I don’t know why they won’t let the (high school) kids go back to school,” Chiesa said.
The chairman noted that progress with vaccinations, plus low hospitalization numbers, should allay concerns about safety. Chiesa added that COVID transmission is low in elementary schools that resumed learning in modified classrooms last fall and teachers are being vaccinated against COVID-19 illness.
The county didn’t have numbers on how many school employees have received one or two doses of coronavirus vaccine. A county estimate puts the number of education employees at 17,537. Moser said employment status and job titles are not required reporting items for people to receive shots for COVID-19.
This story was originally published March 13, 2021 at 5:42 AM.
