Going to a New Year’s Eve party in California? Tool lets you calculate the COVID risk
Coronavirus cases are surging across the country as family and friends continue to gather during the holiday season.
If you’re wondering if you should attend a party to ring in the new year, there’s a tool to assess the risk of COVID-19 spreading at gatherings in every California county.
Georgia Institute of Technology researchers created a map tool that allows users to assess the chances of at least one person testing positive for COVID-19 at an event. Counties in yellow pose have the lowest risk while those in dark red pose a risk greater than 99%.
“You can reduce the risk that one case becomes many by wearing a mask, distancing, and gathering outdoors in smaller groups,” the Georgia Institute of Technology researchers wrote.
As of Dec. 30, California is among the states with the most red-colored counties regardless of event size.
An event with 20 people in Lassen County poses a 92% chance at least one attendee has the coronavirus, using data as of Wednesday. The risk for an event of the same size in San Bernardino and Riverside counties is 88% and 80%, respectively.
A 20-person gathering in Fresno County carries a 76% risk level while Sacramento County has a 46% risk level for an event of the same size.
Stanislaus County has a 60% risk level for a gathering with 20 people to have at least one person infected with COVID-19, and San Luis Obispo County carries a 45% risk. Merced County’s risk level is 70% for a 20-person event.
California has reported at least 34,166 new cases and 425 deaths on Dec. 29, according to The New York Times. There has been an average of 39,241 cases per day over the past week, marking a 20% increase from the average in mid-December.
California has the most confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. with more than 2.2 million cases as of Dec. 30 and nearly 25,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Researchers wrote in a study published in the journal Nature Human Behavior in November that coronavirus risk rates are updated daily.
“The website provides data-driven information to help individuals and policy makers make prudent decisions (for example, increasing mask-wearing compliance and avoiding larger gatherings) that could help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in hard-hit regions,” researchers wrote.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns that traveling or celebrating New Year’s Eve with people who don’t live with you increases your chance of catching and spreading COVID-19.
“The safest way to celebrate the new year is to celebrate at home with the people who live with you or virtually with friends and family. Staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others,” the CDC wrote.
Despite public health warnings about the risks of holiday gatherings, Tuesday was the fourth day in a row that saw more than a million people pass through airport security checkpoints, according to the Transportation Security Administration.
This story was originally published December 30, 2020 at 11:20 AM with the headline "Going to a New Year’s Eve party in California? Tool lets you calculate the COVID risk."