Stanislaus County reports 448 coronavirus cases in one day; hospital projections are grim
Stanislaus County reported 448 new cases of COVID-19 on Monday, just hours after state health officials released dire projections for a coronavirus surge that could overwhelm hospitals in the region.
It’s believed to be the highest daily count since the summer. Two deaths also were reported on the county’s online dashboard Monday, bringing the total to 426.
Gov. Gavin Newsom and state health officials said Monday that medical facilities in the San Joaquin Valley are particularly vulnerable to major impacts as coronavirus outbreaks are projected to worsen in December.
At hospitals in Modesto, Fresno and other cities, the use of ICU beds could climb to 120 percent of capacity, forcing them to convert regular rooms for seriously ill COVID patients or open overflow facilities.
Stanislaus County posted a model predicting that admissions will exceed the capacity for COVID-19 patients in Modesto-area hospitals before Christmas. The modeling by the University of California at San Diego suggests local hospitals have capacity for treating about 450 coronavirus patients.
“We are not on a good trajectory,” said Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, health officer for Stanislaus County.
Vaishampayan said she believes the 448 cases are the beginning of an effect from the Thanksgiving holiday, when health officials feared family gatherings would allow the virus to spread.
“We have talked about this pandemic being a fire and right now it is raging out of control,” Vaishampayan said. “Every gathering is a new log on the fire.”
Along with the wave of new cases, hospitalization of COVID-positive patients in Stanislaus County hospitals rose to 196, a number that hasn’t been seen since the summer COVID-19 surge.
Newsom and top health officials projected major impacts for hospitals in the San Joaquin Valley region in the next three weeks as the coronavirus spreads out of control.
By Christmas Eve, admission of COVID-19 patients could push hospitals to 83 percent of their total bed capacity in the eight-county Valley stretching from Stockton to Bakersfield. The California Department of Public Health estimated that 10 to 30 percent of patients who come to the hospital with COVID-19 complications will need breathing support or intensive care.
Though Modesto is a hub for medical care, hospitals in the largely rural Valley generally have fewer resources and less ICU capacity than facilities in the Bay Area.
Vaishampayan said staffing will be the biggest challenge for local hospitals, more so than the number of hospital beds. Coronavirus patients in intensive care require nurses with specialized skills and the nurse-to-patient ratio is lower.
The hospitals, which see more patients with general medical conditions this time of year, had only six ICU beds available Monday, according to the county.
A representative for Doctors Medical Center of Modesto said the number of COVID patients in the hospital has climbed due to the hospital’s higher level of care and people holding holiday gatherings.
“We are managing our capacity,” said Krista Deans, communications manager for Tenet Healthcare’s Northern California Group. “We have the ability in our surge plans to expand ICU level care to other areas of the hospital, if we reach that point. We are prepared and have plans in place for a potential surge.”
Sacramento-based Sutter Health has seen an increase in cases of COVID-19 at its nonprofit health care facilities in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties, a spokesperson said.
Sutter said it’s monitoring the patient increases at network hospitals including Memorial Medical Center in Modesto. “Our hospitals currently have capacity for patients who require care for COVID-19 and those seeking care for other needs,” Sutter’s statement said.
Some hospitals in hard hit areas of the state were already postponing elective surgeries and making other preparations.
Newsom cited the rise in hospitalizations statewide as justification for stricter measures that are likely to come this week, such as a new stay-at-home order.
Stanislaus is now one of 51 counties in the most restrictive purple tier of the state’s pandemic strategy and would be targeted for “deep purple” restrictions for businesses and the public, which could put a damper on Christmas holiday activities.
Newsom made the announcement Monday while detailing grim new COVID-19 statistics. California’s average daily case rate over the last week has exceeded 14,000. That’s far higher than the previous peak in July, when the average daily case rate hit about 9,880.
That number foreshadows deep trouble for hospitals, as about 12 percent of people testing positive today are expected to be hospitalized. That could cause the number of COVID-19 patients in California hospitals to double or triple in a month, Newsom said.
“If these trends continue, we’re going to have to take much more dramatic, drastic action,” Newsom said. He said that could mean much of the state will return to a strict stay-at-home order similar to restrictions in March.
Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the state’s Health & Human Services Agency, said he couldn’t point to specific business sectors or causes for the late-fall surge that coincides with cooler weather and the pandemic’s westward march across the United States.
People in counties where the virus is widespread have a higher chance of contracting the virus if they are shopping at stores, working or holding social gatherings at home.
“The chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 is higher than it’s ever been,” Ghaly said. “It is just all around our communities and everyone is vulnerable to having an encounter with someone who can spread it.”
The Sacramento Bee contributed to this report.
This story was originally published November 30, 2020 at 5:26 PM.
