Coronavirus update, Oct. 4: Stanislaus County’s infection rate tipping higher
Latest facts on COVID-19 testing in Modesto area
The COVID-19 infection rate is headed in the wrong direction in Stanislaus County, recent data shows.
On Saturday, 75 of the 633 test results published by the county translated to a positivity rate of 11.85%, the third straight day it’s been above 9%. The last single-day rate of more than 9% prior to Friday was Sept. 22.
As the county struggles to get out of the highest state purple tier, which keeps businesses under the most restrictive reopening standards, the number of daily test results also remains low.
In addition to a low positivity rate and low infections per 100,000 residents, the number of daily tests play a factor in counties moving into lower tiers that will loosen rules for businesses, according to the state. The more daily tests, the better the impact it has on adjustments to a county’s qualifying numbers.
While in July and August, Stanislaus County was averaging more than 900 test results a day, that number dropped to an average daily number of 558 in September, according to data on the county website. Through three days of October, the county is reporting 608 daily tests, far below what Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, county health officer, said last week is needed to improve the county’s chances of moving out of the purple tier.
The Saturday numbers were released about two hours before a Bee reporter was passing by Davis Community Park in central Modesto and saw separate soccer games involving adults and children being played without masks.
At the other side of the park, at about 6:30 p.m., a band was playing in what appeared to be the end of a performance with about 60 people standing or sitting, none seen with masks and some ignoring social distancing guidance. Vehicles were leaving the parking lot and several cars were parked on the street, indicating more people had been attending earlier.
The sight of the gatherings throughout the park came about 42 hours after President Trump, who rarely wears a mask and mocks some people who do, announced he has his wife had contracted the coronavirus.
The lack of wearing a mask goes against what Vaishampayan and county health officials have been urging residents to do, in part, to keep residents healthy, and to help possibly lower the rate of infection that would lead to a faster opening of businesses.
The 75 new positive tests on Saturday – the highest number of positive tests since Sept. 18 – brought the total caseload to 16,703. Another 89,751 people tested negative, and 16,103 are presumed recovered.
Saturday’s positivity rate of 11.85% was up from the 9.05% on Friday. The rolling seven-day average was, 7.83%, up from 5.56% the day before. The 14-day average was 6.49%, up from 6.38% on Friday. The positive rate since data collection began in March was 15.7%.
There were two more deaths reported Saturday, bringing the total since the first reported fatality in April to 370.
The rate of death per 100,000 residents in Stanislaus County is 67.19 compared to San Joaquin County’s 61.66 and Merced County’s 52.21.
The county remains in the highest, or purple, tier in the state rating system that decides how much restaurants and other businesses can loosen its coronavirus restrictions. New rankings will be released by the state on Tuesday.
The county’s five hospitals had 41 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, up from 45 on Friday. The number often topped 200 in summer. There were just eight available intensive-care beds for adults, down from 14 the day before.
Of those who tested positive:
- 54% are female
- 46% male
- 7% are 14 years or younger
- 16% are ages 15 to 24
- 21% are 25 to 34,
- 18% are 35 to 44,
- 15% are 45 to 54
- 12% are 55 to 64
- 6% are 65 to 74
- 3% are 75 to 84,
- 2% are 85 or older.
- Though they make up 47 percent of the population, Latinos represented 64 percent of the positive cases.
Geographically:
- Modesto has 6,174 positive cases
- Turlock has 2,231
- Ceres has 2,079
- Riverbank has 836
- Patterson has 812
- Oakdale has 379
- Newman has 338
- Waterford has 255
- Hughson has 151
- Supervisorial District 5 has 1,051
- District 3 has 941
- District 2 has 738
- District 1 has 359
- District 4 has 115
In other nearby counties:
- San Joaquin County has 470 COVID-19-related deaths among 20,485 cases.
- Merced County has 145 deaths among 9,033 cases.
- Tuolumne County has 230 cases and four deaths.
- Mariposa County has 76 cases and two deaths.
As of Sunday morning, there were 829,945 confirmed cases in California and 16,135 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. There were 7,82,356 U.S. cases and 209,399 deaths.
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From around the state, nation and world
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One month from Election Day, President Donald Trump is facing a credibility crisis as yawning as his health crisis, at a moment when he needs the public’s trust the most.
This story was originally published October 4, 2020 at 6:15 AM.
