Stanislaus County not closing bars to curb spread of coronavirus. Will the state do it?
Stanislaus County leaders didn’t take any steps Monday to follow through with a state recommendation Sunday to close bars as a way to reduce the spread of coronavirus.
Top state officials didn’t do anything Monday to make the order mandatory in this county. And no one was sure what effect bar closures would have on tamping down the rate of new infections here.
County officials discussed the possible action and other topics at a meeting Monday but decided to wait.
“We are seeking clarification from the state on what discretion, if any, we have as a local community to make this decision,” Jody Hayes, chief executive officer, said in an email to The Modesto Bee.
The county is also delaying action on opening personal service businesses like nail salons and tattoo shops, which involve close contact between service providers and their customers. Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, county health officer, was not in favor of moving forward with those openings until more case data was reviewed, a county supervisor said.
“We recognize the confusion and associated impacts of these delayed actions and appreciate your patience as we work with the state to clarify these important issues,” Hayes wrote.
Officials with the county’s emergency operations center expected to hold another meeting Wednesday.
Kristin Olsen, county Board of Supervisors chairman, said during a telephone town hall with Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock, on Monday she’s concerned about the trend line in the county’s hospitalization numbers.
“Our concern is the rate at which our hospitalization numbers are increasing is not sustainable,” Olsen said. For now, the county has been assured by hospital administrators they have sufficient capacity for COVID-19 patients.
State officials are monitoring counties like Stanislaus and Gov. Gavin Newsom has authority to reverse reopenings in an effort to stabilize the infection rate. The state announced Monday it would start reversing the reopening process in coronavirus-ravaged Imperial County.
Noting that Tuesday is the county’s 14th day on the state watch list, Olsen said she expects the state will take action to make bar closures mandatory in this county. No one knows what effect closing bars, which were allowed to open June 12, would have or what additional closures might be needed to reduce the spread of coronavirus here.
“My expectation is we will have to close bars this week,” Olsen said.
The county has not been able to reduce the rate of hospitalizations since it was placed on the state watch list two weeks ago. Its rate of positive coronavirus tests is higher than the state’s recommended rate of 8 percent.
While earlier in the pandemic the coronavirus almost seemed to bypass this county, Stanislaus is now part of a hot zone for COVID-19 illness in the Northern San Joaquin Valley and in California.
San Joaquin was one of seven California counties where Newsom ordered bars to close Sunday. Bar closures were recommended in eight other counties including Stanislaus where the state health department is monitoring a surge of infections.
On Monday, the list of counties watched by the state grew from 15 to 19, including Merced.
Stanislaus County numbers rising fast
Bars were targeted for closure after state and local officials noticed an increase in young people testing positive for coronavirus. One in five cases in Stanislaus County are people in the 21 to 30 age group.
The chief concern in Stanislaus County are COVID-19 hospitalizations, which grew to a total of 108 at local hospitals in the latest update Monday. The county update reported 136 suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients currently admitted at local hospitals.
Stanislaus County’s hospitalization rate of 19.2 coronavirus patients per 100,000 is third highest among counties in California. Over the weekend, the 36 critically ill patients in local intensive care units was more than any county in the Bay Area and seventh highest among counties of any size in the state.
The county’s rate of ICU admissions (6.4 per 100,000) is second highest in the state.
Stanislaus reported a record 115 new coronavirus cases Sunday. According to a Stanford University projection, coronavirus-related hospital admissions in Stanislaus County are expected to double by July 15.
Other county leaders didn’t sound eager to reverse the reopening process. Instead, it sounded like additional business openings could get support from county leaders.
“We are not going to close the bars at this point,” Supervisor Terry Withrow said. “We are waiting for more clarification from the state. If the state intends to do it, we will let the state do it.”
Withrow said the county has to balance the public health concerns with residents’ ability to provide for their families.
Vaishampayan, county health officer, issued a statement Friday reminding residents that gatherings of all sizes, including birthday parties, graduation celebrations and “shared celebrations and shared sorrows” are prohibited under a statewide order.
“Unfortunately, in violation of this state directive, there are increased reports of home gatherings,” Vaishampayan wrote. “Many times these are happening without taking the necessary precautions to decrease chances for this virus to spread.”
County tells residents to stay home Fourth of July
A post on the county’s Stanemergency.org Facebook page advised residents to stay home and away from crowded areas during the Fourth of July weekend. “Keep all barbecues and picnics at home and gather only with people in your household,” the county advised.
In a Facebook post, county Supervisor Vito Chiesa said the county was “pumping the brakes” on a proposal to open nail salons, massage and other personal service businesses this week.
He said the county’s contact tracing team, which tries to identify the known contacts of new cases, can’t keep up with the dozens of positive tests reported daily. At the current rate of new infections, the contact tracers need to make from 200 to 1,000 calls per day, “which easily overwhelms our current capabilities,” Chiesa’s post said.
The supervisor said the governor has authority to step in and order the closure of businesses that reopened after the county was approved for a variance May 20. Those businesses included retail shopping centers, restaurant dining rooms, Vintage Faire Mall, hair salons and more.
Chiesa hoped the state will continue leaving those decisions to county health officers. “This is all very fluid, with information changing rapidly,” Chiesa wrote.
Vaishampayan said last week that business sectors that were allowed to reopen June 12 — bars, wineries, fitness centers and museums — were most at risk of closing if the county can’t reverse the increase in infections and hospitalizations.
Modesto is a major hot spot
Cases have tripled this month in Modesto, which has 758 of the county’s 2,165 cases. Zip code areas with large increases since June 5 are 95351 in west and south Modesto with 347 new cases, 95307 in Ceres with 187 and 95350 in central Modesto with 108.
Of the 4,715 test results reported in the last seven days, 526 were positive for a rate of 11.67 percent, which is above the state threshold of 8 percent. New cases in the county averaged 75 per day in the past week.
At a press conference Monday, Newsom expressed concern the rate of positive tests statewide has increased from 4.4 percent to 5.5 percent over the last 14 days, or 5.9 percent in the past week. COVID-19 hospitalizations in California are up 43 percent since June 15.
The state wants to see disease transmission at less than 25 cases per 100,000 over a two-week period, which works out to 140 cases or 10 per day in Stanislaus County.
The state considers taking action to reverse the reopening process in counties if less than 20 percent of hospital intensive care beds remain available and less than 25 percent of ventilators are available.
In Stanislaus County, 37 percent of the 179 ICU beds remain available and 78 percent of 207 ventilators are available. The five hospitals still have 42 percent of 1,209 hospital beds available.
County public health has tracked new cases to family gatherings, outbreaks in the workplace and employees getting sick at businesses with face-to-face contact with customers. Those initially infected often spread the virus to family members at home.
Congregate living facilities are another source of new infections. The owner of El Rio Memory Care, an assisted living facility in north Modesto, reported late Thursday that five residents had died from COVID-19 illness. A total of 26 residents and 14 employees tested positive after 130 residents and staff were tested earlier this month.
“We mourn the loss of those residents and our thoughts and prayers go out to their family and friends,” Koelsch Communities said in a statement.
This story was originally published June 29, 2020 at 7:49 PM.
