Stanislaus County unemployment falls. Here’s one economist’s prediction about recovery
Stanislaus County’s unemployment rate is on a continuing path to recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, which has rocked the country’s economy since March, but long-term recuperation could take years.
The jobless rate for the county measured 13.6% in July, down from 15% in June, according to data released Friday by the state Employment Development Department. Local data released by the state EDD is not seasonally adjusted. June and July’s decreases in unemployment represent a further recovery from April’s high of 17% unemployment in the county, one of the highest rates since the 2008 financial crisis.
Still, long-term recovery will be slow, said Jeffrey Michael, the director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific. Previously, Michael had expected to see longer-term economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis as early as the end of the year. Now, he said he’s looking to late 2021, and even into 2022, before there’s significant economic recuperation from the crisis.
“I’ve been getting a little more pessimistic about the pace of recovery,” he said. “It’s an improvement this month but not as rapid as we had hoped for, and so I think the recovery is slowing down.”
Stanislaus County’s numbers decreased in line with state unemployment: California’s July unemployment rate clocked in at 13.3%, down from 14.9% in June. According to the state EDD, employers gained a total of 140,400 non-farm jobs in July.
Previously, California saw a 16.3% rate of unemployment in May, an increase from April’s 15.5%.
Michael warned that a full economic recovery isn’t possible until the state and county control the effects of the pandemic.
Last month, Michael said he didn’t rule out an increase in unemployment rates in July, since Gov. Gavin Newsom walked back a number of reopening measures due to an uptick of coronavirus cases across the state. The governor had ordered 19 counties, including Stanislaus, to shut down indoor dining and bars on July 1 and extended the directive to include malls, gyms and places of worship on July 13.
While re-closings did impact the hospitality and tourism industries, Michael said, Stanislaus County has a smaller percentage of jobs in those sectors than other areas of the state.
“That was the hardest hit sector, and was coming back pretty strong and then that’s just been frozen,” Michael said. “Other areas have continued to improve: areas like health care and retail, trade and transportation logistics.”
Additionally, Stanislaus County experienced job losses in the government sector — often related to decreased employment in schools during the summer months — and increases in manufacturing, as well as trade and transportation.
Still, unemployment in Stanislaus County remains significantly higher than a year ago, when the jobless rate was at 6.5%. Last year, the county hit a nearly 30-year low for its unemployment rate in September, when it dropped to 4.6%.
Michael said seeing Stanislaus County’s unemployment rate so close to the statewide numbers is notable in and of itself, since the county’s numbers are normally higher than statewide unemployment. He expects the usual disparity in numbers to return, however, as the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic continues, and non-essential industries, like tourism, which the Valley counties have less of, return to previous rates of employment.
Nationally, non-farm employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is a further decrease from June, which saw a national unemployment rate of 11.2%. Between June and July, the number of jobless individuals fell by 1.4 million to 16.3 million.
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published August 22, 2020 at 12:00 AM.
