Stanislaus County unemployment continues to fall, a trend that’s unlikely to continue
Unemployment rates continue to slowly recover in Stanislaus County as the economy adjusts to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which has affected nearly every facet of daily life since March.
The jobless rate in Stanislaus County clocked in at 15% in June, down from 16.2% in May, according to data released Friday by the state Employment Development Department. This number represents a further decrease from April’s rate of 17% percent unemployment, which came close to the county’s record-setting numbers during the 2008 financial crisis.
Stanislaus County’s numbers fell in tandem with the state’s unemployment rate: California had a 14.9% unemployment rate in June, with an increase of 558,200 non-farm jobs. In May, the rate of unemployment was 16.3%, an increase from April’s 15.5%.
Still, the decline won’t necessarily continue into July, said Jeffrey Michael, the director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific. Unemployment numbers for June are based on data taken from the week of June 12, before Gov. Gavin Newsom walked back a number of reopening measures due to an uptick of coronavirus cases across the state.
Newsom ordered 19 counties, including Stanislaus, to shut down indoor dining and bars on July 1 and extended the directive to include malls, gyms and places of worship on July 13.
Because of this, Michael said, it’s likely that July’s unemployment numbers will once again rise, though probably not to the rate they were in April, and look like “a step back.”
“We also saw a shift in consumer behavior,” Michael said. “In the second half of June, we saw things we can observe — like credit card purchases and trips away from the home — that had been sort of recovering through May, and through the first chunk of June, really flat-line and level off.”
Stanislaus County farming jobs had surprising losses
The farming industry saw a decline in jobs between May and June, with a loss of 1,300 jobs in Stanislaus County, according to EDD data. Michael said the decrease was surprising, since farming was initially thought to be an industry that was fairly safe from the virus’ impacts.
Another industry to lose jobs in Stanislaus County is government, with a decline of 2,100 jobs, while other industries remained unchanged or made gains.
In the county, unemployment remains significantly higher than a year ago, when the jobless rate was at 6.3% in June. Last year, the county also hit a nearly 30-year low for its unemployment rate in September when it dropped to 4.6%.
Nationally, unemployment numbers dropped to 11.1% in June, and the country saw a non-farm job increase of 4.8 million, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The number of unemployed individuals fell by 3.2 million nationwide to a total of 17.8 million, and the unemployment rate decreased from 13.3% in May, and 14.7% in April.
Michael also cautioned that the state of the coronavirus pandemic in Stanislaus County is “dire” and that he doesn’t expect to see a lasting economic recovery until the pandemic is under control. Progress will be slow, he added, due to continued disruptions to the economy, including stricter lock-down measures and schools starting online this fall.
Still, he said that if the state can lower the pandemic case numbers and begin reopening again, a 2021 economic recovery is still feasible.
“It’s good to see the positive improvement here in June,” he said.
This story was originally published July 18, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
