Yordan Álvarez Extends Lead in AL MVP Race on Kalshi
Air Yordan continues to take flight in the AL MVP race. Yordan Alvarez is having an elite season thus far, and Kalshi continues to pump up his price as a heavy favorite to win. Alvarez currently leads the American League in several stat categories, including home runs.
Alvarez opened at just 3% on Kalshi's MLB market and was nowhere near contention. He's since rocketed to the top after his dominant season so far. coupled with Aaron Judge being out injured.
AL MVP Winner - Kalshi
- Yordan Alvarez 57%
- Bobby Whitt Jr. 16%
- Junior Caminero 14%
Alvarez is currently favored above the 50% break even line, offering a negative return of $13.67 on a $20 trade.
Power hitting at its finest
Alvarez is on a tear this season with elite top-5 numbers across the board, including 29 home runs, 67 RBI, .310 average, and 1.030 OPS. His OPS, home run, and RBI totals lead the American League this season. He remains in the top-5 in the AL in total bases, SLG, OBP, and hits.
He's on pace for career highs in home runs, RBI, OPS, total bases, runs, WAR, and slugging. He's also on pace to break the Houston Astros' single-season home run record (47) and already matched the franchise's monthly grand slam record with three in June. He already has one in July.
Other than the MVP, he's a real contender for the AL Triple Crown as he already leads in home runs and RBI and is second to Yandy Diaz's .326 batting average.
What's really standing out are his four multi-home games this season, all of which came since June. The highlight of them all came recently on July 4th, when he went 3-4 with two homers and six RBI, including a walk-off two-run homer against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Market movement
Alvarez opened the 2026 season at 3% and surged fast. One month in, he hit 22% and passed preseason favorite Bobby Witt Jr.
The two switched places 11 times from mid-April to early June, when Alvarez took the lead at 35% and continued to surge since.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Yordan Álvarez Extends Lead in AL MVP Race on Kalshi.
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This story was originally published July 10, 2026 at 9:42 AM.