Dieter Kurtenbach: Brock Purdy might be the NFL's most disrespected MVP candidate

I found myself in Las Vegas this past weekend. It was against my will, naturally.

But while navigating that neon wasteland of terrible life choices and overpriced, well, everything, I just might have stumbled across a sportsbook offering NFL MVP odds.

When in Caesar's Rome, right?

I didn't actually put any of my hard-earned money on the table, but I was severely tempted.

To be clear: It's illegal to gamble on sports here in the glorious state of California. So, please, consider this column a mere public service announcement for those of you living in or are soon to visit the less-than-enlightened corners of the country where that's not the case.

Because right now, Vegas and those predatory betting apps are practically handing out free money. The market is just too distracted by shiny new toys to notice the vault is wide open:

Brock Purdy is currently 20-to-1 to win NFL MVP.

It's absurd. It's borderline insulting.

And it won't last. By the end of September, expect these odds to get slashed in half, dropping all the way down to 10-to-1. In fact, that might happen before the first NFL Sunday of the year - one great game in Australia against the Los Angeles Rams on a weekday could be enough to wake everybody up to the new reality in Santa Clara, Calif.

So if you want to capitalize on the sheer, unadulterated disrespect being thrown at the San Francisco 49ers' quarterback, the window is closing fast.

As it stands, Purdy currently has the exact same odds as Washington quarterback Jaden Daniels, whose team the same oddsmakers believe will win seven or eight games this season. Purdy is sitting with the 11th-best odds, and while he might, in fact, be the 11th-best quarterback in football, those two statements are incongruent.

Here's why the smart money is on the kid from Iowa State: MVP is a narrative-based award.

It's just a beauty pageant for sportswriters - an exercise in who can sell the best story at the end of the year. And the narrative is perfectly aligned for Purdy this upcoming season.

Because historically, Purdy's biggest MVP obstacle hasn't been opposing defenses. It's been his own loaded locker room.

And while I do expect the Niners to be good this season, I don't foresee MVP-caliber play from anyone else on this roster.

In the past, players like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel would steal the credit from the Niners' quarterbacks. Was it the signal caller, the head coach or the great skill players that was responsible for excellence? You know the order deduced by people outside the Bay.

For instance, while Lamar Jackson was a worthy MVP in 2023, Purdy and McCaffrey finished fourth and fifth in voting - had just one of the two Niners consolidated the votes, it would have been a better race.

But I don't expect diversification from the 49ers' offense. Not this year.

Father Time - if not the electrical substation - is completely undefeated, and he's knocking loudly on the door in Santa Clara.

Who seriously expects McCaffrey and Kittle to play full seasons? Sorry, but that brutal reality removes them from MVP threat status.

What about the new guys? Sure, Mike Evans is on the team now. But let's be real. At this stage in his illustrious career, Evans isn't the type of player who will siphon MVP votes away from his quarterback.

The rest of the receiving corps - headlined by Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk - is solid but not top-tier. They won't be stealing national headlines from their quarterback. They are there to catch passes, not MVP votes.

It's not to say that Purdy won't have help. It just won't be headline help.

I'm bullish on the 49ers' offensive line going into this season. I might be the only one, but consider this a flag plant. They're going to keep the pocket clean. They'll pave the way - not just for Purdy, but also CMC, Jordan James, and Kaelon Black - all season long.

But great offensive lines are taken for granted. They're just the boys in the boiler room, keeping the lights on, but they never get credit for team success, at least in things like MVP voting.

Perhaps voters will penalize Purdy by giving the credit to head coach Kyle Shanahan, treating the Niners' quarterback like a mindless robot just pushing buttons on a dashboard.

But Matt Stafford just won an MVP with Sean McVay calling plays, and Matt Ryan won an MVP a decade ago with Shanahan as his offensive coordinator.

I think the lack of superstar weapons will override that Shanahan slander this year.

You can't just point to the "genius" head coach when the quarterback is the one ripping passes to every quadrant of the field, putting up points, week after week.

The bottom line is incredibly simple: The 49ers are staring down the barrel of the toughest division in football, if not the toughest schedule (at least when it comes to travel).

Despite that absolute meat grinder of a schedule, I can't help but project they win 11 or 12 games.

(This level of optimism is jarring, and I'm seeking counsel on it.)

When they hit that mark without a full season from their traditional superstar skill players with household names, there's only one conclusion the voters can possibly reach.

The easiest narrative for voters will be that Purdy put the team on his back.

He won't be a game manager. He won't be a system guy. He'll be the undisputed king of the Bay Area. A worthy successor to Joe and Steve.

I'm not guaranteeing it will happen, but you can see the path, right?

It's a scenario that makes a 20-to-1 bet incredibly valuable right now.

You know, if you're into things like that …

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