Republican ads, tweets charge Democrats are soft on crime. Will voters respond?
Less than a week before the national midterm elections, Republicans are once again strategically reaching into their bag of campaign tricks and treating voters to a heaping handful of messaging meant to remind them that it’s a scary, creepy world out there.
And it’s all because of the Democrats.
Crime has again become a big issue for Republicans. Don’t want to be mugged at the mall? Or threatened in your own home? Or worse? Then vote Republican. Or so say their candidates’ seemingly relentless TV ads, tweets and public statements.
Their latest example is a violent crime some would argue is inappropriately opportunistic: the hammer-wielding attack on Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, in the couples’ San Francisco home.
“If this weren’t Paul Pelosi, this criminal would probably be out on the street tomorrow,” GOP Chair Ronna McDaniel told “Fox News Sunday” this week. Democrats, she suggested, are being too soft on suspected criminals..
That’s not a new refrain. Republicans have for years eagerly embraced the tough-on-crime end of the justice debate. Democrats are typically seen as reform-minded, which makes them easier targets to be tagged as soft on crime..
Not surprisingly, it’s happening locally as well, where GOP candidates and their surrogates .have been routinely criticizing Democrats for months as eager to coddle criminals.
Republican congressional candidate Kevin Kiley has run an ad touting the “Pelosi Jones agenda: Defund the police.”
Democratic opponent Kermit Jones does not support defunding the police, and Pelosi said in February that “is not the position of the Democratic Party.”
Nevertheless, such claims and impressions often resonate.
“Ads are most effective when they speak to something people already believe,” said Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks and analyzes campaign advertising.
And people believe that crime is an increasing threat.
“Americans are more likely now than at any time over the past five decades to say there is more crime in their local area than there was a year ago,” according to a Gallup Poll taken Oct. 3-20.
It found 56% reported an increase in crime where they live, a 5 percentage point jump since last year. Among Republicans, 73% said crime in their area was up, compared to 51% of independents and 42% of Democrats.
And in many places it’s true. In Sacramento, murder, rape, assault, robbery and gun-related crimes were all up substantially in 2021 over 2020, according to the Sacramento Police Department. Statewide, homicides were up 7.2% last year.
Republicans and crime
“Swing voters are really concerned about crime,” .said California Republican consultant Matt Rexroad. “I see that in every target universe I am looking at right now. Public safety is the biggest issue for swing voters now.. especially in the Central Valley.”
Republicans in closely-contested races are pushing the crime issue. “Crime is out of control,” says the top of Republican Scott Baugh’s Twitter page. He’s in a tight Orange County congressional race with Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat.
After a series of local shootings caused some high school football games to be canceled in October, Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, noted “These are the real impacts of Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies.” He’s in a close battle with Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield.
On the House floor in September, Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, running in a newly-drawn district, said “Republican communities have backed their police departments with the local funds and moral support they need to do their jobs. Democratic cities have defunded and demonized their police departments.”
Nationally, Republicans suggest Democrats are too willing to give criminals the benefit of any doubt.
“Republicans will put an end to Democrats’ defund the police agenda,” the National Republican Campaign Committee tweeted Sunday.
The GOP’s McDaniel Sunday cited the July attack on New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin, a Republican congressman.
“We saw Lee Zeldin’s attacker was on the street right after he attacked him,” she said. “This is what Democrat policies are bringing.”
The attacker was at first released on his own recognizance, stirring controversy over the state’s cashless bail law, after being charged with assault.
He was then charged with a federal crime and taken into custody. He was released to a treatment program last month.
Why crime ads work
Whether people are directly threatened or not, perceptions matter, even when “we know perceptions informed by media coverage are often at odds with reality,” said Ben Highton, professor of political science at the University of California Davis.
There are other factors at play. Bridging up the crime issue touches on other fears and biases, notably views about immigration or racial minorities.
Highton cited research that links the issue of crime with subtly suggesting racial divisions.
“No one is going to say I’m going to use this as a strategy to prime people’s racial fears,” Highton said, “but there is evidence using this has that effect.”
Kiley, a Rocklin assemblyman vying for the congressional seat in the newly-drawn 3rd district, was listing what he saw as the state’s problems on conservative talk show host Larry O’Connor’s program last month..
“We have soaring crime,” he said. “We’re a sanctuary state.”
Sanctuary areas —including the state of California and about 20 cities and counties in the state —.have policies that discourage law enforcement from reporting someone’s immigration status unless a serious crime is involved.
The Lutheran Refugee and Immigration Services estimates that crime on the average is lower in such areas than non-sanctuary jurisdictions.
Still, Republicans see a big advantage in pushing the crime issue. The Wesleyan project found that in the first two weeks of October, public safety was mentioned in 35% of pro-Republican House race ads and 15.6 % of Democratic ads. Government spending and taxes topped the GOP list, while abortion was the most popular Democratic topic.
For Republicans, crime was moving up.
“The issue has risen in importance in Republican ads over the past six weeks,” Wesleyan found.
Democrats fight back
Democrats bristle at the notion that their policies have made America less safe.
“California Democrats have the record to show they will stand up to crime,” said Madison Mundy, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “As usual, Republicans believe fear and falsehoods are the best campaign tool, but Democrats have the facts and a clear record of supporting public safety on their side.”
Kermit Jones’ campaign called the claim that he wants to defund the police an outright lie.
“I’ll never vote to defund the police,” he said, and cited the endorsement of the 75,000-member Peace Officers Research Association of California.
“We trust he would never be a vote to defund the police or peace officers on the front lines of keeping our communities safe,” said Brian Marvel, the group’s president.
The Kiley campaign cited as evidence for its statement that Jones is “endorsed by organizations that support defunding the police, including the Progressive Voters Guide.” The campaign cited the “No to police money” icon under Jones’ name in the guide, which not every endorsed candidate has.
“He must have told them something to get that label and endorsement,” said Kiley consultant Dave Gilliard. “Not all candidates receive that specific icon.”
But Angela Chavez, spokeswoman for Courage California, which produces the guide, said the icon does not mean defunding the police. It actually signifies the candidate has pledged not to take money from law enforcement sources.
Courage California does not support defunding the police. It says on its website “We know over-policing and over-incarceration doesn’t work, which is why Californians overwhelmingly support, voted for, and demand data-informed public safety solutions and criminal justice reform.”
Democrats are fighting back in many instances. In three of the state’s most closely contested races, Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock, Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, seeking an open Central Valley seat, and Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, hoping to topple Valadao, are out with ads touting their support for, and by, law enforcement.
Is it too late?
Hard to say. But historically, Highton, said, “It’s commonly believed when people are thinking about crime that benefits Republicans over Democrats.”
And though voters don’t typically vote based on a single issue, that’s something to look for Nov. 8.
This story was originally published November 2, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Republican ads, tweets charge Democrats are soft on crime. Will voters respond?."
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