Longtime Modesto Republican explains her `no’ vote on California governor recall

Folks unhappy with Gov. Gavin Newsom gathered enough signatures to trigger a recall election for him on Sept. 14. The state’s recall mechanism has been part of the law since 1911. Since that time, only one governor was successfully recalled: Democratic Gov. Gray Davis was ousted in 2003 and replaced by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The first question on your current ballot is, “Should Governor Gavin Newsom be recalled? Yes or No.” Voters then can go to the second question listing 46 candidates who wish to fill out Newsom’s term. None is particularly well known, so no one really knows for certain who will get the most votes, and there is no runoff.

I have argued against the recall effort since it was originally announced. The effort was made more useless when the signature gathering process had to be restarted, delaying the election to barely a year before Newsom’s term expires on Jan. 2, 2023. If he’s not recalled, and in my opinion probably won’t be, he will stand for re-election next November.

Meanwhile, the official Democratic campaign to save Newsom is sending out postcards to frequent Democratic voters urging them to vote no without picking a replacement. They have to do this because the governor prevented loyal Democrats from placing their names on the list of potential replacements. Further, Newsom’s team messed up and failed to designate his party preference.

The Modesto Bee published an op-ed piece arguing that if the recall is successful, the replacement is likely to be elected by less than 25% of the votes cast while Newson was originally elected with a 10-point advantage over John Cox.

The small margin of victory will allow Democrats to argue that the winner is illegitimate, having received fewer votes than Newsom gets on the recall question. And because the Democrats hold a supermajority in the state Legislature, the new governor will not be able to get any legislation passed, and if and when he vetoes legislation, the supermajority will overrule him.

Newsom has a defense fund of over $70 million. He’s running commercials slamming the leading replacement candidates for their past connection with and support of President Trump. The campaign will likely spend tens of millions of dollars to harvest votes on or near Sept. 14. They did it illegally for decades but recently passed legislation making harvesting legal. Republicans are just learning how to harvest votes but their voters are less likely to surrender ballots to strangers.

It is my intention to vote “no” on the recall question but to vote for one of the potential replacements. If you fail to complete the second question, you may miss an opportunity to elect the next governor.

The most recent polling has Newsom surviving. He was elected by a wide margin expressing the will of the electorate and should be allowed to complete his term and run for re-election on his record. At that time we can have a real debate about his policies, practices and personality.