Smaller families could help Modesto and California cope with crises

All across America, millions of women and couples are deciding to have smaller families. California’s birth rate has also steadily declined over the past decade.

This need not be cause for alarm. In the midst of an unprecedented climate crisis and continued socioeconomic inequities, this shift represents an extraordinary opportunity. We can downshift and focus on creating a greater society — as opposed to a larger one.

Yet alarms are being raised that somehow our future prosperity hinges on higher birth rates. Most Americans clearly understand that’s not true for their own families. And it’s not true for the Modesto region, nor for our nation.

Americans have managed to adapt — and often thrive — in response to vast economic changes. For example, none of today’s five largest U.S. companies even existed when the U.S. population hit 200 million in 1967. Remember when Amazon was just a river in South America?

Since then, our economy has changed dramatically. Regardless of population trends, disruptions to the status quo are a fact of modern life. A stable U.S. population, with fewer people entering the workforce, could provide job opportunities for those currently trapped in poverty — which includes about 25,000 children in the Modesto area. When they grow up, they deserve the chance to find great jobs.

Some worry that we won’t be able to provide for older Americans without rapid population growth. Certainly, we’ll need more nursing homes, but fewer nursery schools. More senior transportation services, but fewer school buses. More gerontologists, but fewer obstetricians.

Yes, the ratio of workers to retirees will shrink, but the ratio of workers to young dependents will rise as family size declines. These manageable shifts will unfold over decades and generations. In fact, demographers still project that U.S. population may rise by more than 100 million by 2100.

As family size shrinks, higher employment among working-aged women, who are still the primary caregivers, can help offset the shrinking ratio of workers to retirees. Also, smaller families make it easier to invest more per child in terms of health and education, which is a boon to our future economic productivity. Tomorrow’s jobs will demand a highly skilled workforce.

In reality, slower population growth should be seen as a breath of fresh air. And speaking of fresh air, most Americans are still understandably worried about air and water pollution. And we are among the primary drivers of global climate change.

While we typically think of climate change affecting faraway places, there are serious challenges facing all of us. Hot weather is on the increase in the Modesto area. Wildfires related to drought and climate change produce smoke that is hazardous to human health. Droughts driven by climate change are a cause of giant wildfires. Slower population growth would reduce demands on the shrinking supply of fresh water in California.

Along the West Coast, sea levels are rising due to climate change. Overbuilding, triggered by rapid population growth in increasingly flood-prone areas, is a prescription for disaster.

Economies can be adjusted to reflect our changing world. We’ll have more older people, and fewer younger people. We’ll have more women entering and staying in the paid labor force. And we’ll have more jobs carried out through automation. We can also have more green spaces and wildlife habitats, more investment in each American, and more hope for a planet that can comfortably support future generations. In this situation, less can be more.