Bruce Frohman: The thought herd immunity actually works is pure Fantasyland thinking
The common cold virus has no cure. Some humans catch many colds. The next season, one may catch cold again. Some catch colds multiple times in the same season. Does the highly contagious coronavirus have a similar infection capability?
President Trump expressed hope that an event akin to “herd immunity” will eventually result in the disappearance of coronavirus without a vaccine. The theory is that eventually no one will be susceptible to the virus because everyone will develop immunity as a consequence of having been exposed to it.
Hoping for universal immunity is Fantasyland thinking.
The recent report that a man in Reno contracted the coronavirus for a second time demonstrates a similarity to the cold virus. Genetic mutation is a means for a virus to defeat the human immune system’s ability to stop it. Wikipedia definition: “Immunity is the capability of multicellular organisms to resist harmful microorganisms from entering their cells.”
Genetic mutation is probably why the common cold has never been cured. A vaccine is created to fight disease with a specific genetic composition. If a virus mutates sufficiently, the vaccine loses effectiveness. For example, last winter, the flu vaccine was only about 23 percent effective because the original flu strain had mutated into multiple vaccine resistant strains.
For months, creating the right vaccine has been touted as the best hope for a cure for the coronavirus. Realistically, a perfect cure-all vaccine might never be developed. The probability of genetic virus mutation is great, which will reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine.
The simplest and most obvious method to stamp out the coronavirus continues to be ignored by a large segment of the general public: quarantine those who test positive and ban superspreader events such as large gatherings, concerts, parties and close contact meetings. Wear face masks.
If one stays away from infected people, one is less likely to become infected. Can a remedy be simpler?
Small pox outbreaks were controlled by isolation. Colds don’t spread when the sick don’t go to work, stay away from other family members, and stay home.
The experience in Wuhan, China, demonstrates what works. After three months of total quarantine, the virus was stopped. It returned only after sick outsiders brought it back.
When will everyone take proper precautions? Why does the government need to mandate behavior that should be voluntary?
Medical science is constantly improving in every aspect of vaccine research and production. With our support, science may eventually conquer the coronavirus. But we can best help the cause by not contributing to the spread.