Our View: El Nino is here, are you ready?
When it comes to the weather, you can either be prepared or you can be sorry you weren’t.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is trying to help everyone become better prepared for what is expected to be a whopper of a winter. And it has already started. The long-awaited El Nino is already breaking records with more on the horizon.
FEMA has developed a website that includes a trove of resources, with separate reports on landslides, debris flows, protecting critical documents, finding real-time information on stream flows, filing claims and figuring out exactly what an El Nino is and any likely impacts here.
Yes, the agency is more concerned with coastal regions than here in the Valley, but that doesn’t mean we won’t face our share of challenges.
“Reviewing 1982-83 and 1997-98 (El Ninos), it is entirely possible that the Modesto area, along with many parts of the Central Valley, will experience widespread flooding,” said Mary Simms, FEMA’s external affairs officer.
Those living in low-lying areas near rivers or streams, said Simms, should “buy flood insurance now.” In fact, they should have bought it last month, since it takes 30 days for the insurance to take effect.
El Ninos are born in the Pacific Ocean in a vast pool near the equator. As the water warms it rises. Ocean levels, measured on the coast, are at an all-time high and the temperature in that pool is higher now than ever recorded – including in 1996-97 when warm storms caused severe flooding throughout the state.
That year was horrible as more than 23,000 structures were flooded statewide – 1,700 in the Modesto area. Heavy snows had fallen on the Sierra in November and December, and they turned to water when a warm deluge arrived on New Year’s Eve. The water rushed down the Sierra into the reservoirs. With Don Pedro Dam on the verge of spilling, operators released vast millions of gallons; when it reached Modesto, that water overflowed the Tuolumne’s banks.
Don’t blame that flood on El Nino. Simms called the 1996-97 event “an atmospheric river.” Some are predicting we could get even more water this year.
In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey modeled a huge rain event, estimating it could cause $700 billion in damages and hobble the state’s economy for a decade. Its study was based on back-to-back winter storms the size of the 1986 El Nino. It suggested 9 million California homes could be flooded as levees became overwhelmed and rivers flooded. The point, said the USGS, was not to frighten people but to help them prepare.
We’ve suffered four years of drought, and the last thing we want to see is water rushing out to the ocean. But every dam must be operated for safety first. With the state’s rim reservoirs so low, many believe they won’t reach capacity this winter. Other weather professionals are predicting Southern California will take the brunt of the El Nino, and it will land more lightly up here.
Still, significant issues remain.
In November, columnist Mike Dunbar wrote about the dangers posed by new hillside nut orchards in eastern Stanislaus, San Joaquin and Merced counties. Ground for those trees was ripped for planting and there hasn’t been enough time for ground-cover plants – that hold the soil in place – to become established. Mix that loose dirt with enough rain, and it could all wash into ravines, streams and then rivers. Once there, it will eventually settle to the bottom of downstream riverbeds. Enough sediment makes floods more likely.
What can we do? Learn of the dangers before they arrive. Create a “flood kit,” using FEMA’s suggestions at www.ready.gov. Bookmark a weather page that tracks incoming storms. Follow river flows online, be aware of the flood stages (Tuolumne 55 feet; San Joaquin 29 at Vernalis; Stanislaus 16 at Orange Blossom). There’s much more to know, such as reservoir capacity and snow depth.
If you’re not prepared, you’ll wish you were.
This story was originally published December 10, 2015 at 9:50 PM with the headline "Our View: El Nino is here, are you ready?."