A week of just about perfect weather awaits Modesto area. And then maybe rain
The Modesto area can expect several days into the low 80s, but not a sudden warming that speeds up the snowmelt.
The National Weather Service forecast a high of 79 degrees Thursday. Friday looks to be near 80, too, followed by highs between 79 and 83 through Wednesday, April 26.
That’s ideal weather for celebrating Earth Day on Saturday and for catching up on yardwork after the very rainy winter.
Too warm a spring could loosen the huge Sierra Nevada snowpack faster than the reservoirs and lower riverbeds can handle it. That’s not in the current projections from the California Department of Water Resources.
It said the Tuolumne River will be 0.4 feet below flood stage at the Ninth Street Bridge into next Tuesday morning. The managers of Don Pedro Reservoir control the flow. It might seem scary, but it is part of a coordinated system for preventing flooding around the Central Valley.
DWR expects the San Joaquin River to be 1.5 feet below flood stage at Vernalis into Tuesday. The Stanislaus River is well within its channel thanks to unused space in New Melones Reservoir.
The central Sierra snowpack was at 250% of the historical average as of Thursday, DWR said. The percentage is expected to shrink as the weather warms. The record is 230% in 1983, when spring storms added to the total and delayed the melt.
The Weather Service sees an above-average chance of storms from April 27 to May 12. It’s too early to guess rain and snow totals if this pattern does emerge.
The week-ahead forecast shows no more chilly mornings, which were in the mid-40s as recorded by the Modesto Irrigation District downtown. Lows in the 50s are expected.
MID has reported 18.43 inches of rain in the water year that began July 1. The historical average is 12.12 inches. The record is 26.01 inches in 1982-83.
