Wild weather ride: Next storm to hit Modesto area is expected to be warmer, wetter, windier
After a precipitation-free Saturday, rain returned to Modesto on Sunday, dropping 0.46 inches between 7 a.m. and 2 p.m., according to the Modesto Irrigation District, and expected to continue on and off into the night.
By noon, rainfall already had eclipsed a National Weather Service forecast earlier in the day that said by Monday morning, Modesto could get a quarter inch of rain or more, and Sonora up to 2 inches.
The Weather Service predicted a good chance of thunderstorms in the Modesto area between noon and 8 p.m. Sunday, and again after 11 p.m. It warned such storms can mean lightning, hail and gusty winds.
Stanislaus sheriff’s Deputy Raj Singh, a spokesman for the county Office of Emergency Services, told The Bee that the Weather Service briefed OES on Sunday morning on the thunderstorms. If they develop, he said, they could be very strong, even including funnel clouds.
Another storm, wetter and warmer (Monday’s high is to be near 67 degrees), is anticipated in the region Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. It could drop up to 2 inches on Modesto and up to 5 in Sonora, the Weather Service forecasts. It says the heaviest rain should be Monday night into Tuesday.
That storm also could mean winds of 35 to 40 mph in Modesto — strongest between late Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. The Weather Service posted a high wind watch for 24 hours beginning at 11 p.m. Monday.
Flood watch extended
A flood watch issued by the Weather Service last week initially was to end Sunday morning but has been extended through Wednesday morning.
The Tuolumne River in Modesto and the San Joaquin River in Newman both are in the monitoring stage.
The Weather Service showed the San Joaquin at 64.1 feet Sunday, and though rising, not nearing the flood level of 69.4 feet this week.
It showed the Tuolumne at 51.9 feet Sunday morning, down from reaching 52.3 feet overnight. The river is predicted to start rising again Tuesday night and reaching flood stage, 55.1 feet, midday Wednesday. It’s projected to peak at 56.4 feet that night before beginning to recede.
The Riverdale area west of Carpenter Road is a concern along the Tuolumne, Singh said. An evacuation warning has been issued, and the flows are being closely watched to see if it needs to be elevated to an evacuation order.
“The Tuolumne we have more control over because TID (Turlock Irrigation District) controls the flow” from the dam at Don Pedro Reservoir, Singh said. OES and TID are talking a minimum of twice a day, he said. The irrigation district relays the flow into Don Pedro and what that will mean for water releases.
On the San Joaquin, he said, there could be some long-term flooding concerns. The river level is “not going to be going down anytime soon because of the possible snowmelt over the next couple of weeks in the watershed to the south,” Singh said.
Dry Creek in Modesto is yet another story. It was at 73 feet Sunday morning, down from 78.4 feet the day before, and trending down. But by Wednesday afternoon, it’s projected to peak at 86.3 feet.
Typically, 82 feet is the level at which an evacuation warning is issued for residents affected by Dry Creek flooding, and 85 feet is the level for an evacuation order, Singh said. But because the anticipated peak level Wednesday is expected to be brief, with the flow quickly receding, there’s unlikely to be an evacuation order, he said.
Tornado in Tuolumne County
On Saturday, the areas of Sonora and Jamestown were battered by high winds and heavy rain. Residents in both communities took to Facebook to post about flooding, structural damage and downed trees and utility lines. The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning Saturday afternoon, and residents reported one. It was confirmed by the Weather Service on Sunday afternoon.
At 9:15 p.m. Saturday, the Tuolumne County Office of Emergency Services posted that afternoon’s NWS tornado warning graphic and commented, “well that was interesting....and scary for many of our community residents.”
Some of those commented on the OES post. “My garage flooded my 3 dogs went nuts my poor cat in my flooded garage was crying no power sump pump generator 6 inches of hail yeah I’m over it ! I never v thought I’d be shoveling hail,” one person wrote. “It was the most scary weather event since I lived here! Thought my windows were going to break.”
Another wrote, “It would have been more cool if water hadn’t been rushing down my driveway like an angry stream trying to enter my house. I love storms, but it’s been too much water in the last few weeks.”
This story was originally published March 12, 2023 at 11:19 AM.
