How much rain is still expected in Modesto this weekend? When will the Valley storms stop?
As yet another storm system pummels the Modesto-area this weekend, residents might wonder when the best time to get outside, run errands or travel will be amid the raindrops.
The region will receive up to half an inch of rain through Sunday, according to the projections released Saturday morning by the National Weather Service in Sacramento. Then to kick off next week, another storm is expected to roll in, bringing up to 2 inches more through Wednesday.
Already from Thursday afternoon, when the current weather system moved into the area, through Friday, 0.77 inches have fallen, according to the Modesto Irrigation District. As of midday Saturday, the sky was partly sunny, but more rain was expected in the afternoon and night.
On Sunday, rain is expected to get heavier in the afternoon and then stronger still in the evening.
National Weather Service Sacramento meteorologist Eric Kurth suggested Sunday morning as probably the best time to get out of the house, run errands and travel, for those looking to stay dry and safe.
As the new week begins, that pattern is expected to hold: less rain Monday morning, followed by heavier downpours in the afternoon and then an easing in the evening, with about a quarter-inch accumulation.
But, Kurth said, Tuesday morning’s forecast sees another atmospheric river swinging through, bringing moderate to heavy rain to the Modesto area. That system is expected to last through Wednesday afternoon, with possible light showers lingering into the evening.
The systems rolling through the region aren’t forecast to be as windy as some of the more recent Valley storms, with gusts expected to be about 15 mph. But the Weather Service says said Modesto could see higher winds — up to 35 mph — during isolated weekend thunderstorms.
The first dry day in Modesto next week is forecast to come Thursday, Kurth said.
The current and coming storm systems should also be much warmer than the ones from earlier this year. According to MID weather data, Friday’s high was 59 degrees. The National Weather Service is forecasting temperatures in the 60s through the weekend and next week.
“Warmed systems just tend to be wetter. They’re getting more of this tropical moisture which tends to bring more rain into the Valley,” Kurth said.
The warmer storm systems could also cause problems in the foothills and Sierra Nevada, which have been inundated with snow this year. More snow is forecast for higher elevations, around 7,000 to 8,000 feet, with rain that could rapidly melt accumulated snow at lower elevations.
Kurth said the runoff from snowmelt could swell Modesto-area and Valley waterways. On Thursday evacuation warnings were issued for two Modesto trailer parks along the Tuolumne River at Ninth Street. The City of Modesto also closed a dozen parks, trails and access points through Tuesday because of storm dangers and potential flooding.
“People should still be aware that there is some danger with the coming systems. (Snow melt) is elevating rivers and streams and on top of that there’s more rain,” Kurth said. “So that’s something to watch out for. If you encounter flooded roads, turn around and don’t drown. Don’t try to cross them.”
This story was originally published March 10, 2023 at 1:56 PM.
