Modesto’s plentiful rains last December ended abruptly. Why this year’s may be different
The Modesto area has had two straight Decembers with abundant storms. A year ago, that luck did not hold.
California’s rain and snow were far above average through December 2021, about two months into the storm season. Then came a January and February with virtually nothing, resulting in below-average conditions for a third straight year.
The forecast for early January 2023 suggests that this pattern won’t repeat. The National Weather Service expects a sunny New Year’s Day and then a return to rain and snow Monday and Tuesday. A longer-range model hints at moisture into at least mid-January.
The latest storm Tuesday, Dec. 27, was followed by a sunny Wednesday before the next one forecast to arrive early Thursday.
The Modesto Irrigation District has recorded 6.16 inches of rain downtown in the current water year. An average year is 12.12 inches. The current tally includes 1.51 inches from the latest storm between Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon.
The downpour caused street flooding in several places. Emergency agencies reported no major problems around Stanislaus County as of Wednesday morning.
The snowpack in the central Sierra Nevada was at 160% of average Wednesday, the California Department of Water Resources reported. It was at 134% a day earlier. The snow is the main water source for Central Valley cities and farms.
The forecast calls for more storms starting overnight Wednesday and running through Saturday. Modesto’s rain could total 3 inches, and new snow could pile as high as 6 feet, the Weather Service said.
The agency’s Climate Prediction Center is less precise, but it indicates above-average storms through Jan. 10 and equal chances for wet and dry through March.
Last winter, the December storms brought the MID rain total to 8.86 inches. January had zero, and February eked out 0.02 inches.
River runoff in the central Sierra ended up at 63% of average for the 2022 water year, DWR reported. It was 39% in 2021 and 62% in 2020.
Water suppliers have had varying impacts from the drought based on storage in reservoirs and aquifers. They were bolstered by above-average storms in 2017 and 2019.
