Analysts expected a Democrat to win this blue San Joaquin Valley seat. Now, maybe not
Congressman Josh Harder and Supervisor Tom Patti advanced to the November election in California’s 9th Congressional District on Thursday evening, according to the Associated Press.
Though the Stockton-centered district is widely rated as “likely” for a Democrat in November, the primary election results indicate that the race will be close.
Harder, D-Turlock, had 39% of the vote and Patti, a Republican San Joaquin County supervisor, had 28.2% as of Thursday evening. About 46% of ballots had been counted.
Overall, Democrats on the June 7 ballot took just 52.2% of the vote. Republicans collected 47%. Less than one percentage point went to an Independent.
Come fall, not all Democratic votes will go to Harder, 35, nor all Republicans for Patti, 59. But primary results can offer a window into possible November outcomes.
Independent analysts are split over the status of the race, but all still favor Democrats. After the primary, Elections Daily rated the seat as “leans Democratic,” meaning the party has an edge but the race remains competitive. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball placed it in the “likely”column, indicating a clear Democratic edge but with the possibility of an upset. Inside Elections viewed the seat as safe for a Democrat.
Forty-two percent of voters in the 9th are registered as Democrats. Twenty-nine percent are Republicans. The district, newly drawn based on 2020 census data, would have voted for President Joe Biden by 13% in 2020.
The 9th goes from Thornton south to Tracy and Manteca. It closely mirrors San Joaquin County, where Patti has been a supervisor since 2017.
While it is geographically similar to the old 9th, the top half is new to Harder. He currently represents the 10th, which borders the old 9th to the south and reaches up into part of San Joaquin County captured in the new district.
After redistricting, the old 9th’s incumbent, Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Stockton, said he would not run there in 2022. Harder, who had announced his intent to run in the new 13th Congressional District, moved his campaign north to the 9th for what would presumably be an easier election for a Democrat, based on the area’s partisan make up.
So far, it is. As of June 16, Republican farmer John Duarte took 34.3% of the vote in the 13th and Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray had 31%. Both advanced to the general. Republican candidates took 51.7% of the vote with almost 90% of the ballots counted.
The election in the new 13th, which takes parts of Modesto and Harder’s hometown of Turlock in a stretch of that holds all of Merced County, is rated by all trackers as one that leans Democratic. It would have voted for Biden by 11% in 2020, but it also would have recalled Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021 by a percentage point, making it a prime GOP target.
The shift toward Republicans is typical for a midterm election when, historically, the party of the president loses support. That, coupled with Biden’s low approval rating and concerns over inflation and COVID-19 policies, have left analysts predicting that the GOP will sweep nationally and take control of the U.S. House in 2023.
Harder has faced tough elections before. In 2018, to win the 10th district seat, which covers Modesto and Turlock, he defeated Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham by just under 5 percentage points. In 2020, he bested Republican challenger Ted Howze by more than a 10% margin. The Republican party had pulled its support from Howze, a former Turlock city councilman, the summer of the election after racist posts from his social media account surfaced.
In Congress, Harder serves on the House Agriculture Committee and the Appropriations Committee. Prior to joining Congress, Harder taught business at Modesto Junior College and worked in venture capital.
“As a new dad, I know how rising costs are crushing our families and we desperately need more commonsense leaders to actually get things done,” Harder said in a statement after election night. “We have to put politics aside to get costs down, fight rising crime, and finally tackle the homelessness crisis. I’m ready to work my heart out for the Valley and hope to earn your vote in November.”
Patti, who owns Delta Cranes, a company that he built with his father, represents District 3 on the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors. That includes parts of Stockton and Manteca in the 9th and Lathrop in the 13th.
Patti briefly considered a career in professional boxing as he trained with legend Mike Tyson and coach, Cus D’Amato, in the 1980s.
“I’m truly honored and humbled by the support we’ve received from the voters in our community where I grew up,” Patti said in a statement after election night. “The time is now for new energy, vision, and a focus that will help working families, ensure that law enforcement has the tools to keep our neighborhoods safe, and deliver affordable energy independence for our great nation.”
This story was originally published June 17, 2022 at 12:50 PM.
