Assembly campaign choice: Tried and true, or fresh and new

The 12th Assembly District race is peculiar because of the surface sameness of the candidates: Heath Flora and Ken Vogel, both conservative Republican part-time farmers from San Joaquin County hoping to represent a district mostly in Stanislaus County.

Of 100 California Legislature campaigns this year, only four feature Republicans going head-to-head in November – thanks to state rules allowing the top two primary election vote-getters to advance to the November ballot, regardless of party. And we’ve got one of those rare races here; at least, for voters in Turlock, Salida, Ripon, Manteca, Lathrop and part of Modesto, as well as eastern Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.

By the way, of the other state Assembly and Senate races, 16 are between Democrats and the rest have the more traditional flavor of candidates from different parties.

Yet Flora and Vogel – who topped three others in a nasty five-way primary, and who have faced each other in court – are the first to say that despite their apparent similarities, they are very different men.

Vogel, with decades of experience in public office, represents the tried-and-true GOP standard bearer. The Republican Party likes being able to count on a trusted, sure vote, and has thrown its support to Vogel, as have most locally elected office holders, including all members of city councils in Turlock, Ripon, Escalon and Manteca, and four of five Stanislaus County supervisors.

Flora is the up-and-comer and a favorite of police and firefighters and their political-action committees. Although he has no experience in public office, he presents a fresh face, a new look, the voice of the rising generation. He lacks support from his own party and most politicians, but Flora does enjoy backing from two popular Republicans who don’t mind going their own way: state Sen. Anthony Cannella, R-Ceres, and Stanislaus County Supervisor Terry Withrow.

Rebranding Valley GOP?

“A lot of people feel disenfranchised with the Republican Party and the direction it’s going,” Flora said. “(Vogel) has been involved in that for a long time. We don’t want to be part of the old Republican Party. It’s time to remarket who we are.”

At 71, Vogel is more than twice Flora’s age – Flora is 33. That’s great for Vogel, if you like a sure thing; remember that 73-year-old Ronald Reagan charmed an audience when, asked during a 1984 debate if he was too old to be president, he said, “I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

“Vogel has been coming to our events and meetings over the years, so we’re familiar with him,” said Jim DeMartini, chairman of the Stanislaus Republican Central Committee and a county supervisor. “Nothing against the other guy, but he’s never been politically active till (recently). He’s never worked on someone’s campaign.”

Others see Flora’s relative youth as a prime selling point.

“Ken is a very nice man, but he’s been doing this a long time. I’d like to see some fresh blood come in there,” Withrow said.

Which set of qualities – tried and true, or fresh and new – is more important?

Olsen stays neutral

Don’t bother looking to outgoing Assemblywoman Kristin Olsen, R-Riverbank, for advice. Having termed out of the Legislature, she ran unopposed in June for a Stanislaus supervisor’s seat and will take it at year’s end. As for her successor in Sacramento, she’s not playing favorites.

“I think it’s best for voters to decide, and for me to not get involved,” Olsen said. “Both have their heart in the right place when it comes to public service.”

Perhaps the third Republican in the five-way primary – Cindy Marks, the longest-serving Modesto City Schools board member – could enlighten us?

“I believe either one would be a great representative for the Central Valley,” Marks said. As with Olsen, both Flora and Vogel asked for Marks’ endorsement, and neither got it.

Both men early on correctly saw each other as his chief rival. They exchanged vicious attacks in the primary while essentially ignoring the other candidates – Marks, and Democrats Virginia Madueño and Harinder Grewal. It proved to be a winning strategy in an Assembly district that leans to the right: 41 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat.

Vogel, who raises cherries and walnuts, sued to stop Flora from listing “farmer” as one of his occupations on the official ballot. Flora, who works in family orchard-management services and nut-harvesting equipment sales, saw that as a low blow. He also sells firefighting forcible-entry equipment; Vogel is a retired school principal.

Primary mudfest

They resorted to name-calling. A Vogel flier referred to his opponent as “con artist liberal Heath Flora” and compared him to Hillary Clinton. Flora called Vogel a “double dipper” for his government pensions and “two faced” on high-speed rail, and said Vogel “dishonestly campaigns.”

When June results rolled in, Vogel topped the field with 26 percent followed by Flora with 23 percent. From one perspective, more people voted for the three candidates who lost than voted for Vogel and Flora, yet neither has done much to reach out to Democratic voters.

In June, Vogel – who lives in Stockton and has a long San Joaquin service record – captured far more votes there than Flora, who moved from Modesto to Ripon only last year. Flora outpolled Vogel in Stanislaus County, which has nearly twice as many voters than San Joaquin in the 12th Assembly District: 144,000 to 77,000, respectively.

Valley Democrats are likely to turn out in droves to vote for Clinton. Will they check a box for the 12th Assembly District, if the only choice is between two conservative Republicans?

“There is no good model,” Vogel mused. “Who’s going to vote?”

Vogel has kept a fundraising edge, having collected $304,000 in the past two years. Flora’s contributors have given $232,000.

Those totals don’t include $75,000 that Vogel loaned his campaign, or the $10,000 that Flora loaned to his. Flora also got loans of $8,400 from Cannella’s campaign, plus $4,200 from the campaign of Assemblyman Brian Dahle, R-Nubieber.

Special-interest money pouring in

Nor do the numbers include independent expenditures, or funds controlled by outside special interests as opposed to candidates or their official campaigns. Flora benefited most in the primary, when the California Alliance for Progress and Education and the California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee spent more than $250,000 bashing Vogel or supporting Flora.

On Wednesday, a group called Building and Protecting a Strong California reported spending more than $200,000 recently in hit pieces against Vogel or ads and mailers backing Flora, which should emerge shortly. The group is a coalition of firefighters, correctional officers, real estate agents and the building industry.

“Most of (Flora’s) money comes from interests in Sacramento. Most of mine comes from my district,” Vogel said. “If you get money in a certain area, will you listen to that group or your constituents?”

Flora and Vogel are scheduled to appear at a public debate hosted by the Stanislaus League of Women Voters at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday in the basement chamber at Tenth Street Place, 1010 10th St., Modesto.

This story was originally published October 15, 2016 at 3:51 PM with the headline "Assembly campaign choice: Tried and true, or fresh and new."